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Juazeirense U20 vs Catuense U20 — Baiano U20 2026

Juazeirense U20
Juazeirense U20
FT
3 – 4
Catuense U20
Catuense U20
3/23/2024Baiano U20Baiano U20 · 1st Phase - 3Estádio Municipal Pedro Coni Neto

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Juazeirense U2054%
×Draw21%
Catuense U2025%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Juazeirense U20
2.13
Catuense U20
1.40

Juazeirense U20 creates 52% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 13 away

creates per match

Juazeirense U20
1.19
Catuense U20
1.46

allows per match

Juazeirense U20
1.33
Catuense U20
3.08

finishing

Juazeirense U20+0.00on par
Catuense U20+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Juazeirense U20 ↓

Catuense U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
68%32%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Juazeirense U20 or draw
75%
Juazeirense U20 or Catuense U20
79%
Draw or Catuense U20
46%

Winning margin

Juazeirense U20 wins by 2+
32%
Catuense U20 wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Juazeirense U20 1+ goals
88%
Juazeirense U20 2+ goals
63%
Juazeirense U20 3+ goals
35%
Catuense U20 1+ goals
75%
Catuense U20 2+ goals
41%
Catuense U20 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Juazeirense U20 (draw refunded)
68%
Catuense U20 (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Juazeirense U20 at home — creates 1.19, concedes 1.33 · 21 matches

Catuense U20 away — creates 1.46, concedes 3.08 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Juazeirense U20 attack 1.19 + Catuense U20 defence 3.08 → ÷2 → 2.13

Catuense U20 attack 1.46 + Juazeirense U20 defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Juazeirense U20 scores more
54%
level
21%
Catuense U20 scores more
25%

Juazeirense U20 at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Juazeirense U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Juazeirense U20 vs Catuense U20

Catuense U20 beat Juazeirense U20 4-3 in Baiano U20 on March 23, 2024.

The match was played at Estádio Municipal Pedro Coni Neto in Conceição do Almeida, Bahia.