Catuense U20 2–1 Juazeirense U20: Result & Stats

Catuense U20

FT

2 – 1

Juazeirense U20

5/8/2024

Baiano U20 · 1st Phase - 12Estádio Antônio de Figueiredo Carneiro

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Catuense U2040%

×Draw22%

Juazeirense U2039%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Catuense U20Expected goals in this matchJuazeirense U20

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.86

1.83

Catuense U20

1.86

Juazeirense U20

1.83

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 13 home / 20 away

1.08

creates per match

1.20

2.46

allows per match

2.65

creates per match

Catuense U20

1.08

Juazeirense U20

1.20

allows per match

Catuense U20

2.46

Juazeirense U20

2.65

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Catuense U20+0.00on par

Juazeirense U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over71
Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes71
No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Catuense U20 ↓

Juazeirense U20 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–24%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–19%

1–28%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

88%12%2.5

71%29%3.5

50%50%4.5

31%69%

Double chance

Catuense U20 or draw

61%

Catuense U20 or Juazeirense U20

78%

Draw or Juazeirense U20

60%

Winning margin

Catuense U20 wins by 2+

21%

Juazeirense U20 wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Catuense U20 1+ goals

84%

Catuense U20 2+ goals

55%

Catuense U20 3+ goals

28%

Juazeirense U20 1+ goals

84%

Juazeirense U20 2+ goals

54%

Juazeirense U20 3+ goals

28%

Draw no bet

Catuense U20 (draw refunded)

51%

Juazeirense U20 (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

62%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Catuense U20 at home — creates 1.08, concedes 2.46 · 13 matches

Juazeirense U20 away — creates 1.20, concedes 2.65 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Catuense U20 attack 1.08 + Juazeirense U20 defence 2.65 → ÷2 → 1.86

Juazeirense U20 attack 1.20 + Catuense U20 defence 2.46 → ÷2 → 1.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Catuense U20 scores more

40%

level

22%

Juazeirense U20 scores more

39%

Catuense U20 at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Catuense U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff