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Juan Pablo II College vs Carlos Stein — Segunda División 2018

Juan Pablo II College
Juan Pablo II College
FT
3 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Carlos Stein
Carlos Stein
6/5/2024Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Round 10Estadio de la Juventud

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Juan Pablo II College60%
×Draw20%
Carlos Stein20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Juan Pablo II College
2.23
Carlos Stein
1.21

Juan Pablo II College creates 84% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 34 away

creates per match

Juan Pablo II College
1.67
Carlos Stein
1.09

allows per match

Juan Pablo II College
1.33
Carlos Stein
2.79

finishing

Juan Pablo II College+0.00on par
Carlos Stein+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Juan Pablo II College ↓

Carlos Stein →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Juan Pablo II College or draw
80%
Juan Pablo II College or Carlos Stein
80%
Draw or Carlos Stein
40%

Winning margin

Juan Pablo II College wins by 2+
38%
Carlos Stein wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Juan Pablo II College 1+ goals
89%
Juan Pablo II College 2+ goals
65%
Juan Pablo II College 3+ goals
38%
Carlos Stein 1+ goals
70%
Carlos Stein 2+ goals
34%
Carlos Stein 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Juan Pablo II College (draw refunded)
75%
Carlos Stein (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Juan Pablo II College at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.33 · 12 matches

Carlos Stein away — creates 1.09, concedes 2.79 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Juan Pablo II College attack 1.67 + Carlos Stein defence 2.79 → ÷2 → 2.23

Carlos Stein attack 1.09 + Juan Pablo II College defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Juan Pablo II College scores more
60%
level
20%
Carlos Stein scores more
20%

Juan Pablo II College at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Juan Pablo II College will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Juan Pablo II College vs Carlos Stein

Juan Pablo II College beat Carlos Stein 3-1 in Segunda División on June 5, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio de la Juventud in Chongoyape.