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Carlos Stein vs Juan Pablo II College — Segunda División 2018

Carlos Stein
Carlos Stein
CANC
00:00
Juan Pablo II College
Juan Pablo II College
4/2/2024Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Round 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Carlos Stein30%
×Draw26%
Juan Pablo II College44%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Carlos Stein
1.15
Juan Pablo II College
1.46

Juan Pablo II College creates 27% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 12 away

creates per match

Carlos Stein
1.12
Juan Pablo II College
0.67

allows per match

Carlos Stein
2.24
Juan Pablo II College
1.17

finishing

Carlos Stein+0.00on par
Juan Pablo II College+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Carlos Stein ↓

Juan Pablo II College →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–111%
0–28%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Carlos Stein or draw
56%
Carlos Stein or Juan Pablo II College
74%
Draw or Juan Pablo II College
70%

Winning margin

Carlos Stein wins by 2+
12%
Juan Pablo II College wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Carlos Stein 1+ goals
68%
Carlos Stein 2+ goals
32%
Carlos Stein 3+ goals
11%
Juan Pablo II College 1+ goals
77%
Juan Pablo II College 2+ goals
43%
Juan Pablo II College 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Carlos Stein (draw refunded)
40%
Juan Pablo II College (draw refunded)
60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Carlos Stein at home — creates 1.12, concedes 2.24 · 33 matches

Juan Pablo II College away — creates 0.67, concedes 1.17 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Carlos Stein attack 1.12 + Juan Pablo II College defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.15

Juan Pablo II College attack 0.67 + Carlos Stein defence 2.24 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Carlos Stein scores more
30%
level
26%
Juan Pablo II College scores more
44%

Juan Pablo II College at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Juan Pablo II College will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Carlos Stein host Juan Pablo II College

April 2, 2024: Carlos Stein take on Juan Pablo II College in Segunda División. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.