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Juan Aurich vs Deportivo Hualgayoc — Segunda División 2018

Juan Aurich
Juan Aurich
FT
4 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Deportivo Hualgayoc
Deportivo Hualgayoc
6/24/2018Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Round 12Estadio de la Juventud (Chongoyape)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Juan Aurich49%
×Draw24%
Deportivo Hualgayoc27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Juan Aurich
1.71
Deportivo Hualgayoc
1.21

Juan Aurich creates 41% more chances

Season form · 70 home / 14 away

creates per match

Juan Aurich
1.64
Deportivo Hualgayoc
1.43

allows per match

Juan Aurich
0.99
Deportivo Hualgayoc
1.79

finishing

Juan Aurich+0.00on par
Deportivo Hualgayoc+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Juan Aurich ↓

Deportivo Hualgayoc →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Juan Aurich or draw
73%
Juan Aurich or Deportivo Hualgayoc
76%
Draw or Deportivo Hualgayoc
51%

Winning margin

Juan Aurich wins by 2+
26%
Deportivo Hualgayoc wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Juan Aurich 1+ goals
82%
Juan Aurich 2+ goals
51%
Juan Aurich 3+ goals
24%
Deportivo Hualgayoc 1+ goals
70%
Deportivo Hualgayoc 2+ goals
34%
Deportivo Hualgayoc 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Juan Aurich (draw refunded)
64%
Deportivo Hualgayoc (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Juan Aurich at home — creates 1.64, concedes 0.99 · 70 matches

Deportivo Hualgayoc away — creates 1.43, concedes 1.79 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Juan Aurich attack 1.64 + Deportivo Hualgayoc defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.71

Deportivo Hualgayoc attack 1.43 + Juan Aurich defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Juan Aurich scores more
49%
level
24%
Deportivo Hualgayoc scores more
27%

Juan Aurich at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Juan Aurich will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Juan Aurich vs Deportivo Hualgayoc

Juan Aurich beat Deportivo Hualgayoc 4-0 in Segunda División on June 24, 2018.

The match was played at Estadio de la Juventud (Chongoyape).