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Deportivo Hualgayoc vs Juan Aurich — Segunda División 2018

Deportivo Hualgayoc
Deportivo Hualgayoc
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Juan Aurich
Juan Aurich
9/30/2018Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Round 27Estadio Municipal de Hualgayoc (Hualgayoc)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Deportivo Hualgayoc56%
×Draw22%
Juan Aurich22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Deportivo Hualgayoc
1.88
Juan Aurich
1.08

Deportivo Hualgayoc creates 74% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 69 away

creates per match

Deportivo Hualgayoc
2.07
Juan Aurich
1.23

allows per match

Deportivo Hualgayoc
0.93
Juan Aurich
1.68

finishing

Deportivo Hualgayoc+0.00on par
Juan Aurich+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo Hualgayoc ↓

Juan Aurich →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Deportivo Hualgayoc or draw
78%
Deportivo Hualgayoc or Juan Aurich
78%
Draw or Juan Aurich
44%

Winning margin

Deportivo Hualgayoc wins by 2+
32%
Juan Aurich wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Deportivo Hualgayoc 1+ goals
85%
Deportivo Hualgayoc 2+ goals
56%
Deportivo Hualgayoc 3+ goals
29%
Juan Aurich 1+ goals
66%
Juan Aurich 2+ goals
29%
Juan Aurich 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Deportivo Hualgayoc (draw refunded)
72%
Juan Aurich (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportivo Hualgayoc at home — creates 2.07, concedes 0.93 · 14 matches

Juan Aurich away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.68 · 69 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo Hualgayoc attack 2.07 + Juan Aurich defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.88

Juan Aurich attack 1.23 + Deportivo Hualgayoc defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Deportivo Hualgayoc scores more
56%
level
22%
Juan Aurich scores more
22%

Deportivo Hualgayoc at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Deportivo Hualgayoc will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Deportivo Hualgayoc vs Juan Aurich

Deportivo Hualgayoc and Juan Aurich drew 1-1 in Segunda División on September 30, 2018.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de Hualgayoc (Hualgayoc).