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Juan Aurich vs Alfredo Salinas — Segunda División 2018

Juan Aurich
Juan Aurich
FT
5 – 0
HT: 3 – 0
Alfredo Salinas
Alfredo Salinas
10/14/2018Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Round 28Estadio de la Juventud (Chongoyape)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Juan Aurich71%
×Draw18%
Alfredo Salinas11%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Juan Aurich
2.17
Alfredo Salinas
0.71

Juan Aurich creates 206% more chances

Season form · 70 home / 14 away

creates per match

Juan Aurich
1.64
Alfredo Salinas
0.43

allows per match

Juan Aurich
0.99
Alfredo Salinas
2.71

finishing

Juan Aurich+0.00on par
Alfredo Salinas+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Juan Aurich ↓

Alfredo Salinas →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–14%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–19%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–17%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–14%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (13%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Juan Aurich or draw
89%
Juan Aurich or Alfredo Salinas
82%
Draw or Alfredo Salinas
29%

Winning margin

Juan Aurich wins by 2+
46%
Alfredo Salinas wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Juan Aurich 1+ goals
89%
Juan Aurich 2+ goals
64%
Juan Aurich 3+ goals
36%
Alfredo Salinas 1+ goals
51%
Alfredo Salinas 2+ goals
16%
Alfredo Salinas 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Juan Aurich (draw refunded)
87%
Alfredo Salinas (draw refunded)
13%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Juan Aurich at home — creates 1.64, concedes 0.99 · 70 matches

Alfredo Salinas away — creates 0.43, concedes 2.71 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Juan Aurich attack 1.64 + Alfredo Salinas defence 2.71 → ÷2 → 2.17

Alfredo Salinas attack 0.43 + Juan Aurich defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 0.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 71%?"

Juan Aurich scores more
71%
level
18%
Alfredo Salinas scores more
11%

Juan Aurich at 71% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 71% does not mean "Juan Aurich will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Segunda División: Juan Aurich 5–0 Alfredo Salinas

Juan Aurich beat Alfredo Salinas 5-0 in Segunda División on October 14, 2018.

The match was played at Estadio de la Juventud (Chongoyape).