Alfredo Salinas 3–0 Juan Aurich: Result & Stats

Alfredo Salinas

FT

3 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Juan Aurich

7/1/2018

Segunda División · Round 13Estadio Municipal de Espinar (Espinar)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Alfredo Salinas36%

×Draw24%

Juan Aurich40%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Alfredo SalinasExpected goals in this matchJuan Aurich

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.52

1.61

Alfredo Salinas

1.52

Juan Aurich

1.61

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 14 home / 69 away

1.36

creates per match

1.23

2.00

allows per match

1.68

creates per match

Alfredo Salinas

1.36

Juan Aurich

1.23

allows per match

Alfredo Salinas

2.00

Juan Aurich

1.68

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Alfredo Salinas+0.00on par

Juan Aurich+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alfredo Salinas ↓

Juan Aurich →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–17%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

60%40%3.5

38%62%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Alfredo Salinas or draw

60%

Alfredo Salinas or Juan Aurich

76%

Draw or Juan Aurich

64%

Winning margin

Alfredo Salinas wins by 2+

17%

Juan Aurich wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Alfredo Salinas 1+ goals

78%

Alfredo Salinas 2+ goals

45%

Alfredo Salinas 3+ goals

20%

Juan Aurich 1+ goals

80%

Juan Aurich 2+ goals

48%

Juan Aurich 3+ goals

22%

Draw no bet

Alfredo Salinas (draw refunded)

47%

Juan Aurich (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alfredo Salinas at home — creates 1.36, concedes 2.00 · 14 matches

Juan Aurich away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.68 · 69 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alfredo Salinas attack 1.36 + Juan Aurich defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.52

Juan Aurich attack 1.23 + Alfredo Salinas defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.61

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Alfredo Salinas scores more

36%

level

24%

Juan Aurich scores more

40%

Juan Aurich at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Juan Aurich will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff