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JSO vs AS Cotonou — Championnat National 2019

JSO
JSO
FT
3 – 2
AS Cotonou
AS Cotonou
1/18/2025Championnat NationalChampionnat National · Group B - 17Stade Muncipal de Ouidah

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

JSO42%
×Draw31%
AS Cotonou27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

JSO
1.09
AS Cotonou
0.81

JSO creates 35% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 113 away

creates per match

JSO
1.24
AS Cotonou
0.88

allows per match

JSO
0.74
AS Cotonou
0.95

finishing

JSO+0.00on par
AS Cotonou+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Under
  • Under70
  • Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

63%No
  • No63
  • Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

JSO ↓

AS Cotonou →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–112%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
57%43%2.5
30%70%3.5
13%87%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

JSO or draw
73%
JSO or AS Cotonou
69%
Draw or AS Cotonou
58%

Winning margin

JSO wins by 2+
17%
AS Cotonou wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

JSO 1+ goals
66%
JSO 2+ goals
30%
JSO 3+ goals
10%
AS Cotonou 1+ goals
56%
AS Cotonou 2+ goals
19%
AS Cotonou 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

JSO (draw refunded)
61%
AS Cotonou (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
24%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

JSO at home — creates 1.24, concedes 0.74 · 34 matches

AS Cotonou away — creates 0.88, concedes 0.95 · 113 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

JSO attack 1.24 + AS Cotonou defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.09

AS Cotonou attack 0.88 + JSO defence 0.74 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

JSO scores more
42%
level
31%
AS Cotonou scores more
27%

JSO at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "JSO will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: JSO vs AS Cotonou

JSO beat AS Cotonou 3-2 in Championnat National on January 18, 2025.

The match was played at Stade Muncipal de Ouidah in Ouidah.