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AS Cotonou vs JSO — Championnat National 2019

AS Cotonou
AS Cotonou
CANC
00:00
JSO
JSO
6/7/2025Championnat NationalChampionnat National · Group B - 34

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

AS Cotonou53%
×Draw30%
JSO18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

AS Cotonou
1.26
JSO
0.60

AS Cotonou creates 110% more chances

Season form · 110 home / 35 away

creates per match

AS Cotonou
1.12
JSO
0.54

allows per match

AS Cotonou
0.66
JSO
1.40

finishing

AS Cotonou+0.00on par
JSO+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Under
  • Under71
  • Over29

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

68%No
  • No68
  • Yes32

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AS Cotonou ↓

JSO →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–016%
0–19%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–020%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–17%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (20%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
84%16%1.5
55%45%2.5
29%71%3.5
12%88%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

AS Cotonou or draw
82%
AS Cotonou or JSO
70%
Draw or JSO
47%

Winning margin

AS Cotonou wins by 2+
24%
JSO wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

AS Cotonou 1+ goals
72%
AS Cotonou 2+ goals
36%
AS Cotonou 3+ goals
13%
JSO 1+ goals
45%
JSO 2+ goals
12%
JSO 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

AS Cotonou (draw refunded)
75%
JSO (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
21%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AS Cotonou at home — creates 1.12, concedes 0.66 · 110 matches

JSO away — creates 0.54, concedes 1.40 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AS Cotonou attack 1.12 + JSO defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.26

JSO attack 0.54 + AS Cotonou defence 0.66 → ÷2 → 0.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

AS Cotonou scores more
53%
level
30%
JSO scores more
18%

AS Cotonou at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "AS Cotonou will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: AS Cotonou host JSO

June 7, 2025: AS Cotonou take on JSO in Championnat National. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.