JSM Skikda 1–1 JS Kabylie: Result & Stats | Ligue 1

JSM Skikda

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

JS Kabylie

W. Benhamrouche 57'

S. Houari 13'

8/28/2021

Ligue 1 · Round 30Stade du 20 Août 1955

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

JSM Skikda33%

×Draw29%

JS Kabylie38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

JSM SkikdaExpected goals in this matchJS Kabylie

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.03

1.13

JSM Skikda

1.03

JS Kabylie

1.13

JS Kabylie creates 10% more chances

Season form · 35 home / 122 away

1.14

creates per match

1.05

1.20

allows per match

0.92

creates per match

JSM Skikda

1.14

JS Kabylie

1.05

allows per match

JSM Skikda

1.20

JS Kabylie

0.92

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

JSM Skikda+0.00on par

JS Kabylie+0.00on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

JSM Skikda ↓

JS Kabylie →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–113%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

17%83%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

JSM Skikda or draw

62%

JSM Skikda or JS Kabylie

71%

Draw or JS Kabylie

67%

Winning margin

JSM Skikda wins by 2+

12%

JS Kabylie wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

JSM Skikda 1+ goals

64%

JSM Skikda 2+ goals

28%

JSM Skikda 3+ goals

9%

JS Kabylie 1+ goals

68%

JS Kabylie 2+ goals

31%

JS Kabylie 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

JSM Skikda (draw refunded)

46%

JS Kabylie (draw refunded)

54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

JSM Skikda at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.20 · 35 matches

JS Kabylie away — creates 1.05, concedes 0.92 · 122 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

JSM Skikda attack 1.14 + JS Kabylie defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 1.03

JS Kabylie attack 1.05 + JSM Skikda defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

JSM Skikda scores more

33%

level

29%

JS Kabylie scores more

38%

JS Kabylie at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "JS Kabylie will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

13'

S. Houari

57'

K. Abdoune← A. El Orfi

57'

M. Nait Salem← K. Bouaziz

57'

W. Benhamrouche

62'

F. Sadoudi← R. Mebarki

JSM

JS

⚽

▼

▼

▼

⚽

Manager: Y. Ifticen

Manager: Y. Bouzidi

57'▲K. Abdoune←▼A. El Orfi

57'▲M. Nait Salem←▼K. Bouaziz

62'▲F. Sadoudi←▼R. Mebarki

JS Kabylie substitutes

AbdouneSalemSadoudi

Ligue 1: JSM Skikda 1–1 JS Kabylie

JSM Skikda and JS Kabylie drew 1-1 in Ligue 1 on August 28, 2021.

Goals: S. Houari (13'), W. Benhamrouche (57').

The match was played at Stade du 20 Août 1955 in Skikda.

JSM Skikda vs JS Kabylie — Ligue 1 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Ligue 1: JSM Skikda 1–1 JS Kabylie