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JSM Skikda vs JS Kabylie — Ligue 1 2018

JSM Skikda
JSM Skikda
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
JS Kabylie
JS Kabylie
1/4/2019Ligue 1Ligue 1 · Round 16Stade du 20 Août 1955 (Bechar)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

JSM Skikda34%
×Draw29%
JS Kabylie36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

JSM Skikda
1.06
JS Kabylie
1.10

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 36 home / 123 away

creates per match

JSM Skikda
1.19
JS Kabylie
1.04

allows per match

JSM Skikda
1.17
JS Kabylie
0.93

finishing

JSM Skikda+0.00on par
JS Kabylie+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

JSM Skikda ↓

JS Kabylie →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–113%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

JSM Skikda or draw
64%
JSM Skikda or JS Kabylie
71%
Draw or JS Kabylie
66%

Winning margin

JSM Skikda wins by 2+
13%
JS Kabylie wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

JSM Skikda 1+ goals
65%
JSM Skikda 2+ goals
29%
JSM Skikda 3+ goals
9%
JS Kabylie 1+ goals
67%
JS Kabylie 2+ goals
30%
JS Kabylie 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

JSM Skikda (draw refunded)
49%
JS Kabylie (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

JSM Skikda at home — creates 1.19, concedes 1.17 · 36 matches

JS Kabylie away — creates 1.04, concedes 0.93 · 123 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

JSM Skikda attack 1.19 + JS Kabylie defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.06

JS Kabylie attack 1.04 + JSM Skikda defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

JSM Skikda scores more
34%
level
29%
JS Kabylie scores more
36%

JS Kabylie at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "JS Kabylie will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ligue 1: JSM Skikda 0–1 JS Kabylie

JS Kabylie beat JSM Skikda 1-0 in Ligue 1 on January 4, 2019.

The match was played at Stade du 20 Août 1955 (Bechar).