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JSM Skikda vs Bordj BOU Arreridj — League #187 2026

JSM Skikda
JSM Skikda
FT
2 – 1
Bordj BOU Arreridj
Bordj BOU Arreridj
12/25/2021League #187League #187 · East - 10Stade du 20 Août 1955

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

JSM Skikda59%
×Draw23%
Bordj BOU Arreridj19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

JSM Skikda
1.80
Bordj BOU Arreridj
0.90

JSM Skikda creates 100% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 6 away

creates per match

JSM Skikda
1.60
Bordj BOU Arreridj
1.00

allows per match

JSM Skikda
0.80
Bordj BOU Arreridj
2.00

finishing

JSM Skikda+0.00on par
Bordj BOU Arreridj+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

JSM Skikda ↓

Bordj BOU Arreridj →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–111%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

JSM Skikda or draw
81%
JSM Skikda or Bordj BOU Arreridj
77%
Draw or Bordj BOU Arreridj
41%

Winning margin

JSM Skikda wins by 2+
34%
Bordj BOU Arreridj wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

JSM Skikda 1+ goals
83%
JSM Skikda 2+ goals
54%
JSM Skikda 3+ goals
27%
Bordj BOU Arreridj 1+ goals
59%
Bordj BOU Arreridj 2+ goals
23%
Bordj BOU Arreridj 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

JSM Skikda (draw refunded)
76%
Bordj BOU Arreridj (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

JSM Skikda at home — creates 1.60, concedes 0.80 · 10 matches

Bordj BOU Arreridj away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.00 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

JSM Skikda attack 1.60 + Bordj BOU Arreridj defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.80

Bordj BOU Arreridj attack 1.00 + JSM Skikda defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

JSM Skikda scores more
59%
level
23%
Bordj BOU Arreridj scores more
19%

JSM Skikda at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "JSM Skikda will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: JSM Skikda vs Bordj BOU Arreridj

JSM Skikda beat Bordj BOU Arreridj 2-1 in League #187 on December 25, 2021.

The match was played at Stade du 20 Août 1955 in Skikda.