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Bordj Bou Arreridj vs JSM Skikda — Ligue 1 2018

Bordj Bou Arreridj
Bordj Bou Arreridj
FT
2 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
JSM Skikda
JSM Skikda
2/22/2019Ligue 1Ligue 1 · Round 21Stade du 20 Août 1955 (Bordj Bou Arréridj)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Bordj Bou Arreridj52%
×Draw29%
JSM Skikda20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bordj Bou Arreridj
1.33
JSM Skikda
0.71

Bordj Bou Arreridj creates 87% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 35 away

creates per match

Bordj Bou Arreridj
1.09
JSM Skikda
0.37

allows per match

Bordj Bou Arreridj
1.04
JSM Skikda
1.57

finishing

Bordj Bou Arreridj+0.00on par
JSM Skikda+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

63%No
  • No63
  • Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bordj Bou Arreridj ↓

JSM Skikda →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–19%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Bordj Bou Arreridj or draw
80%
Bordj Bou Arreridj or JSM Skikda
71%
Draw or JSM Skikda
48%

Winning margin

Bordj Bou Arreridj wins by 2+
25%
JSM Skikda wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Bordj Bou Arreridj 1+ goals
74%
Bordj Bou Arreridj 2+ goals
38%
Bordj Bou Arreridj 3+ goals
15%
JSM Skikda 1+ goals
51%
JSM Skikda 2+ goals
16%
JSM Skikda 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Bordj Bou Arreridj (draw refunded)
72%
JSM Skikda (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bordj Bou Arreridj at home — creates 1.09, concedes 1.04 · 45 matches

JSM Skikda away — creates 0.37, concedes 1.57 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bordj Bou Arreridj attack 1.09 + JSM Skikda defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.33

JSM Skikda attack 0.37 + Bordj Bou Arreridj defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 0.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Bordj Bou Arreridj scores more
52%
level
29%
JSM Skikda scores more
20%

Bordj Bou Arreridj at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Bordj Bou Arreridj will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ligue 1: Bordj Bou Arreridj 2–0 JSM Skikda

Bordj Bou Arreridj beat JSM Skikda 2-0 in Ligue 1 on February 22, 2019.

The match was played at Stade du 20 Août 1955 (Bordj Bou Arréridj).