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JSM Skikda vs ASO Chlef — Ligue 1 2018

JSM Skikda
JSM Skikda
FT
1 – 4
HT: 0 – 1
ASO Chlef
ASO Chlef
12/23/2020Ligue 1Ligue 1 · Round 5Stade du 20 Août 1955

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

JSM Skikda42%
×Draw28%
ASO Chlef30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

JSM Skikda
1.29
ASO Chlef
1.04

JSM Skikda creates 24% more chances

Season form · 36 home / 106 away

creates per match

JSM Skikda
1.19
ASO Chlef
0.92

allows per match

JSM Skikda
1.17
ASO Chlef
1.40

finishing

JSM Skikda+0.00on par
ASO Chlef+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

JSM Skikda ↓

ASO Chlef →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

JSM Skikda or draw
70%
JSM Skikda or ASO Chlef
72%
Draw or ASO Chlef
58%

Winning margin

JSM Skikda wins by 2+
19%
ASO Chlef wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

JSM Skikda 1+ goals
72%
JSM Skikda 2+ goals
37%
JSM Skikda 3+ goals
14%
ASO Chlef 1+ goals
65%
ASO Chlef 2+ goals
28%
ASO Chlef 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

JSM Skikda (draw refunded)
58%
ASO Chlef (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

JSM Skikda at home — creates 1.19, concedes 1.17 · 36 matches

ASO Chlef away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.40 · 106 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

JSM Skikda attack 1.19 + ASO Chlef defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.29

ASO Chlef attack 0.92 + JSM Skikda defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

JSM Skikda scores more
42%
level
28%
ASO Chlef scores more
30%

JSM Skikda at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "JSM Skikda will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ligue 1: JSM Skikda 1–4 ASO Chlef

ASO Chlef beat JSM Skikda 4-1 in Ligue 1 on December 23, 2020.

The match was played at Stade du 20 Août 1955 in Skikda.