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ASO Chlef vs JSM Skikda — Ligue 1 2018

ASO Chlef
ASO Chlef
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
JSM Skikda
JSM Skikda
5/30/2021Ligue 1Ligue 1 · Round 24Stade Mohamed Boumezrag

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

ASO Chlef56%
×Draw28%
JSM Skikda16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

ASO Chlef
1.36
JSM Skikda
0.57

ASO Chlef creates 139% more chances

Season form · 107 home / 35 away

creates per match

ASO Chlef
1.15
JSM Skikda
0.37

allows per match

ASO Chlef
0.77
JSM Skikda
1.57

finishing

ASO Chlef+0.00on par
JSM Skikda+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Under
  • Under70
  • Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

68%No
  • No68
  • Yes32

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ASO Chlef ↓

JSM Skikda →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–18%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–020%
1–111%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–18%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (20%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
57%43%2.5
30%70%3.5
13%87%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

ASO Chlef or draw
84%
ASO Chlef or JSM Skikda
72%
Draw or JSM Skikda
44%

Winning margin

ASO Chlef wins by 2+
28%
JSM Skikda wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

ASO Chlef 1+ goals
74%
ASO Chlef 2+ goals
39%
ASO Chlef 3+ goals
16%
JSM Skikda 1+ goals
43%
JSM Skikda 2+ goals
11%
JSM Skikda 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

ASO Chlef (draw refunded)
78%
JSM Skikda (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
21%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ASO Chlef at home — creates 1.15, concedes 0.77 · 107 matches

JSM Skikda away — creates 0.37, concedes 1.57 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ASO Chlef attack 1.15 + JSM Skikda defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.36

JSM Skikda attack 0.37 + ASO Chlef defence 0.77 → ÷2 → 0.57

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

ASO Chlef scores more
56%
level
28%
JSM Skikda scores more
16%

ASO Chlef at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "ASO Chlef will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ligue 1: ASO Chlef 1–0 JSM Skikda

ASO Chlef beat JSM Skikda 1-0 in Ligue 1 on May 30, 2021.

The match was played at Stade Mohamed Boumezrag in Chlef.