JSM Skikda 1–1 AS AIN Mlila: Result & Stats

JSM Skikda

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

AS AIN Mlila

1/7/2023

League #187 · East - 14Stade du 20 Août 1955

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

JSM Skikda49%

×Draw30%

AS AIN Mlila21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

JSM SkikdaExpected goals in this matchAS AIN Mlila

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.23

0.69

JSM Skikda

1.23

AS AIN Mlila

0.69

JSM Skikda creates 78% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 7 away

1.60

creates per match

0.57

0.80

allows per match

0.86

creates per match

JSM Skikda

1.60

AS AIN Mlila

0.57

allows per match

JSM Skikda

0.80

AS AIN Mlila

0.86

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

JSM Skikda+0.00on par

AS AIN Mlila+0.00on par

Total goals

Under70
Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No65
Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

JSM Skikda ↓

AS AIN Mlila →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–015%

0–110%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–018%

1–112%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

85%15%1.5

57%43%2.5

30%70%3.5

13%87%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

JSM Skikda or draw

79%

JSM Skikda or AS AIN Mlila

70%

Draw or AS AIN Mlila

51%

Winning margin

JSM Skikda wins by 2+

22%

AS AIN Mlila wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

JSM Skikda 1+ goals

71%

JSM Skikda 2+ goals

35%

JSM Skikda 3+ goals

13%

AS AIN Mlila 1+ goals

50%

AS AIN Mlila 2+ goals

15%

AS AIN Mlila 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

JSM Skikda (draw refunded)

70%

AS AIN Mlila (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

23%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

JSM Skikda at home — creates 1.60, concedes 0.80 · 10 matches

AS AIN Mlila away — creates 0.57, concedes 0.86 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

JSM Skikda attack 1.60 + AS AIN Mlila defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 1.23

AS AIN Mlila attack 0.57 + JSM Skikda defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

JSM Skikda scores more

49%

level

30%

AS AIN Mlila scores more

21%

JSM Skikda at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "JSM Skikda will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff