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AS AIN Mlila vs JSM Skikda — League #187 2026

AS AIN Mlila
AS AIN Mlila
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
JSM Skikda
JSM Skikda
Unknown 82', 9'
12/18/2021League #187League #187 · East - 9Stade Touhami Zoubir Khelifi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

AS AIN Mlila47%
×Draw26%
JSM Skikda27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

AS AIN Mlila
1.50
JSM Skikda
1.07

AS AIN Mlila creates 40% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 7 away

creates per match

AS AIN Mlila
1.14
JSM Skikda
1.43

allows per match

AS AIN Mlila
0.71
JSM Skikda
1.86

finishing

AS AIN Mlila+0.00on par
JSM Skikda+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AS AIN Mlila ↓

JSM Skikda →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
47%53%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

AS AIN Mlila or draw
73%
AS AIN Mlila or JSM Skikda
74%
Draw or JSM Skikda
53%

Winning margin

AS AIN Mlila wins by 2+
24%
JSM Skikda wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

AS AIN Mlila 1+ goals
78%
AS AIN Mlila 2+ goals
44%
AS AIN Mlila 3+ goals
19%
JSM Skikda 1+ goals
66%
JSM Skikda 2+ goals
29%
JSM Skikda 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

AS AIN Mlila (draw refunded)
64%
JSM Skikda (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AS AIN Mlila at home — creates 1.14, concedes 0.71 · 7 matches

JSM Skikda away — creates 1.43, concedes 1.86 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AS AIN Mlila attack 1.14 + JSM Skikda defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.50

JSM Skikda attack 1.43 + AS AIN Mlila defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

AS AIN Mlila scores more
47%
level
26%
JSM Skikda scores more
27%

AS AIN Mlila at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "AS AIN Mlila will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

9'
82'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: AS AIN Mlila vs JSM Skikda

JSM Skikda beat AS AIN Mlila 2-0 in League #187 on December 18, 2021.

Goals: ? (9', 82').

The match was played at Stade Touhami Zoubir Khelifi in Aïn M'lila.