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JSM Skikda vs AS Ain Mlila — Ligue 1 2018

JSM Skikda
JSM Skikda
FT
4 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
AS Ain Mlila
AS Ain Mlila
4/1/2019Ligue 1Ligue 1 · Round 25Stade du 20 Août 1955 (Bechar)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

JSM Skikda49%
×Draw26%
AS Ain Mlila24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

JSM Skikda
1.50
AS Ain Mlila
0.97

JSM Skikda creates 55% more chances

Season form · 36 home / 45 away

creates per match

JSM Skikda
1.19
AS Ain Mlila
0.78

allows per match

JSM Skikda
1.17
AS Ain Mlila
1.82

finishing

JSM Skikda+0.00on par
AS Ain Mlila+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

JSM Skikda ↓

AS Ain Mlila →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

JSM Skikda or draw
76%
JSM Skikda or AS Ain Mlila
74%
Draw or AS Ain Mlila
51%

Winning margin

JSM Skikda wins by 2+
25%
AS Ain Mlila wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

JSM Skikda 1+ goals
78%
JSM Skikda 2+ goals
44%
JSM Skikda 3+ goals
19%
AS Ain Mlila 1+ goals
62%
AS Ain Mlila 2+ goals
25%
AS Ain Mlila 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

JSM Skikda (draw refunded)
67%
AS Ain Mlila (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

JSM Skikda at home — creates 1.19, concedes 1.17 · 36 matches

AS Ain Mlila away — creates 0.78, concedes 1.82 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

JSM Skikda attack 1.19 + AS Ain Mlila defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.50

AS Ain Mlila attack 0.78 + JSM Skikda defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

JSM Skikda scores more
49%
level
26%
AS Ain Mlila scores more
24%

JSM Skikda at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "JSM Skikda will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ligue 1: JSM Skikda 4–1 AS Ain Mlila

JSM Skikda beat AS Ain Mlila 4-1 in Ligue 1 on April 1, 2019.

The match was played at Stade du 20 Août 1955 (Bechar).