Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

JSM Bejaia vs Amal BOU Saada — League #187 2026

JSM Bejaia
JSM Bejaia
FT
3 – 2
Amal BOU Saada
Amal BOU Saada
2/8/2019League #187League #187 · Round 21Stade de l'Unité Maghrébine (Béjaïa)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

JSM Bejaia57%
×Draw24%
Amal BOU Saada20%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

JSM Bejaia
1.74
Amal BOU Saada
0.92

JSM Bejaia creates 89% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 12 away

creates per match

JSM Bejaia
1.40
Amal BOU Saada
1.00

allows per match

JSM Bejaia
0.83
Amal BOU Saada
2.08

finishing

JSM Bejaia+0.00on par
Amal BOU Saada+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

JSM Bejaia ↓

Amal BOU Saada →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

JSM Bejaia or draw
80%
JSM Bejaia or Amal BOU Saada
76%
Draw or Amal BOU Saada
43%

Winning margin

JSM Bejaia wins by 2+
32%
Amal BOU Saada wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

JSM Bejaia 1+ goals
82%
JSM Bejaia 2+ goals
52%
JSM Bejaia 3+ goals
25%
Amal BOU Saada 1+ goals
60%
Amal BOU Saada 2+ goals
23%
Amal BOU Saada 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

JSM Bejaia (draw refunded)
74%
Amal BOU Saada (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

JSM Bejaia at home — creates 1.40, concedes 0.83 · 30 matches

Amal BOU Saada away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.08 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

JSM Bejaia attack 1.40 + Amal BOU Saada defence 2.08 → ÷2 → 1.74

Amal BOU Saada attack 1.00 + JSM Bejaia defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

JSM Bejaia scores more
57%
level
24%
Amal BOU Saada scores more
20%

JSM Bejaia at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "JSM Bejaia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

12'
Zamoum
28'
Touil
41'
Benmessaoud
70'
GhannemPenalty
72'
Touil
JSM
Amal

League #187: JSM Bejaia 3–2 Amal BOU Saada

JSM Bejaia beat Amal BOU Saada 3-2 in League #187 on February 8, 2019.

Goals: Zamoum (12'), Touil (28', 72'), Benmessaoud (41'), Ghannem (70' pen).

The match was played at Stade de l'Unité Maghrébine (Béjaïa).