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Amal BOU Saada vs JSM Bejaia — League #187 2026

Amal BOU Saada
Amal BOU Saada
FT
1 – 1
JSM Bejaia
JSM Bejaia
8/30/2019League #187League #187 · Round 2Stade OPOW

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Amal BOU Saada53%
×Draw27%
JSM Bejaia20%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Amal BOU Saada
1.43
JSM Bejaia
0.76

Amal BOU Saada creates 88% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 30 away

creates per match

Amal BOU Saada
1.33
JSM Bejaia
0.77

allows per match

Amal BOU Saada
0.75
JSM Bejaia
1.53

finishing

Amal BOU Saada+0.00on par
JSM Bejaia+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Amal BOU Saada ↓

JSM Bejaia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–19%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Amal BOU Saada or draw
80%
Amal BOU Saada or JSM Bejaia
73%
Draw or JSM Bejaia
47%

Winning margin

Amal BOU Saada wins by 2+
27%
JSM Bejaia wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Amal BOU Saada 1+ goals
76%
Amal BOU Saada 2+ goals
42%
Amal BOU Saada 3+ goals
17%
JSM Bejaia 1+ goals
53%
JSM Bejaia 2+ goals
18%
JSM Bejaia 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Amal BOU Saada (draw refunded)
73%
JSM Bejaia (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Amal BOU Saada at home — creates 1.33, concedes 0.75 · 12 matches

JSM Bejaia away — creates 0.77, concedes 1.53 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Amal BOU Saada attack 1.33 + JSM Bejaia defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.43

JSM Bejaia attack 0.77 + Amal BOU Saada defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Amal BOU Saada scores more
53%
level
27%
JSM Bejaia scores more
20%

Amal BOU Saada at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Amal BOU Saada will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Amal BOU Saada vs JSM Bejaia

Amal BOU Saada and JSM Bejaia drew 1-1 in League #187 on August 30, 2019.

The match was played at Stade OPOW in M'Sila.