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JSK vs Bukavu Dawa — Ligue 1 2019

JSK
JSK
CANC
12:30
Bukavu Dawa
Bukavu Dawa
4/9/2025Ligue 1Ligue 1 · Round 26Stade des Martyrs de la Pentecôte

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

JSK54%
×Draw26%
Bukavu Dawa20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

JSK
1.55
Bukavu Dawa
0.83

JSK creates 87% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 27 away

creates per match

JSK
1.15
Bukavu Dawa
0.81

allows per match

JSK
0.85
Bukavu Dawa
1.96

finishing

JSK+0.00on par
Bukavu Dawa+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

JSK ↓

Bukavu Dawa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
42%58%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

JSK or draw
80%
JSK or Bukavu Dawa
74%
Draw or Bukavu Dawa
46%

Winning margin

JSK wins by 2+
28%
Bukavu Dawa wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

JSK 1+ goals
79%
JSK 2+ goals
46%
JSK 3+ goals
20%
Bukavu Dawa 1+ goals
56%
Bukavu Dawa 2+ goals
20%
Bukavu Dawa 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

JSK (draw refunded)
73%
Bukavu Dawa (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

JSK at home — creates 1.15, concedes 0.85 · 85 matches

Bukavu Dawa away — creates 0.81, concedes 1.96 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

JSK attack 1.15 + Bukavu Dawa defence 1.96 → ÷2 → 1.55

Bukavu Dawa attack 0.81 + JSK defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

JSK scores more
54%
level
26%
Bukavu Dawa scores more
20%

JSK at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "JSK will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

JSK face Bukavu Dawa (Ligue 1)

Ligue 1 returns with JSK hosting Bukavu Dawa. Match starts April 9, 2025. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

JSK host Bukavu Dawa at Stade des Martyrs de la Pentecôte.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.