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Bukavu Dawa vs JSK — Ligue 1 2019

Bukavu Dawa
Bukavu Dawa
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
JSK
JSK
12/20/2025Ligue 1Ligue 1 · Round 13

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Bukavu Dawa26%
×Draw32%
JSK42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bukavu Dawa
0.77
JSK
1.07

JSK creates 39% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 81 away

creates per match

Bukavu Dawa
0.52
JSK
0.94

allows per match

Bukavu Dawa
1.21
JSK
1.02

finishing

Bukavu Dawa+0.00on par
JSK+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Under
  • Under72
  • Over28

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

65%No
  • No65
  • Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bukavu Dawa ↓

JSK →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–016%
0–117%
0–29%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–15%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
84%16%1.5
55%45%2.5
28%72%3.5
12%88%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Bukavu Dawa or draw
58%
Bukavu Dawa or JSK
68%
Draw or JSK
74%

Winning margin

Bukavu Dawa wins by 2+
8%
JSK wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Bukavu Dawa 1+ goals
54%
Bukavu Dawa 2+ goals
18%
Bukavu Dawa 3+ goals
4%
JSK 1+ goals
66%
JSK 2+ goals
29%
JSK 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Bukavu Dawa (draw refunded)
38%
JSK (draw refunded)
62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
22%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bukavu Dawa at home — creates 0.52, concedes 1.21 · 29 matches

JSK away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.02 · 81 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bukavu Dawa attack 0.52 + JSK defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 0.77

JSK attack 0.94 + Bukavu Dawa defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Bukavu Dawa scores more
26%
level
32%
JSK scores more
42%

JSK at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "JSK will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ligue 1: Bukavu Dawa 0–1 JSK

JSK beat Bukavu Dawa 1-0 in Ligue 1 on December 20, 2025.