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JS Saoura vs Olympique Medea — Ligue 1 2018

JS Saoura
JS Saoura
FT
4 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Olympique Medea
Olympique Medea
O. Adrar 88', 81'
I. Saâdi 52'
B. Mellel 33'
A. Gagaâ 78' (pen)
5/21/2022Ligue 1Ligue 1 · Round 31Stade du 20 Août 1955

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

JS Saoura60%
×Draw25%
Olympique Medea15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

JS Saoura
1.62
Olympique Medea
0.67

JS Saoura creates 142% more chances

Season form · 107 home / 52 away

creates per match

JS Saoura
1.78
Olympique Medea
0.69

allows per match

JS Saoura
0.64
Olympique Medea
1.46

finishing

JS Saoura+0.00on par
Olympique Medea+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

JS Saoura ↓

Olympique Medea →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–17%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

JS Saoura or draw
85%
JS Saoura or Olympique Medea
75%
Draw or Olympique Medea
40%

Winning margin

JS Saoura wins by 2+
33%
Olympique Medea wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

JS Saoura 1+ goals
80%
JS Saoura 2+ goals
48%
JS Saoura 3+ goals
22%
Olympique Medea 1+ goals
49%
Olympique Medea 2+ goals
15%
Olympique Medea 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

JS Saoura (draw refunded)
80%
Olympique Medea (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

JS Saoura at home — creates 1.78, concedes 0.64 · 107 matches

Olympique Medea away — creates 0.69, concedes 1.46 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

JS Saoura attack 1.78 + Olympique Medea defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.62

Olympique Medea attack 0.69 + JS Saoura defence 0.64 → ÷2 → 0.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

JS Saoura scores more
60%
level
25%
Olympique Medea scores more
15%

JS Saoura at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "JS Saoura will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

33'
B. Mellel
52'
I. Saâdi
78'
A. GagaâPenalty
81'
O. Adrar
88'
O. Adrar

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ligue 1: JS Saoura 4–1 Olympique Medea

JS Saoura beat Olympique Medea 4-1 in Ligue 1 on May 21, 2022.

Goals: B. Mellel (33'), I. Saâdi (52'), A. Gagaâ (78' pen), O. Adrar (81', 88').

The match was played at Stade du 20 Août 1955 in Bechar.