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JS Saoura vs Olympique Medea — Ligue 1 2018

JS Saoura
JS Saoura
FT
2 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Olympique Medea
Olympique Medea
3/17/2018Ligue 1Ligue 1 · Round 23Stade du 20 Août 1955 (Bechar)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 53+ matches

JS Saoura61%
×Draw24%
Olympique Medea15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

JS Saoura
1.62
Olympique Medea
0.65

JS Saoura creates 149% more chances

Season form · 109 home / 53 away

creates per match

JS Saoura
1.77
Olympique Medea
0.68

allows per match

JS Saoura
0.62
Olympique Medea
1.47

finishing

JS Saoura+0.00on par
Olympique Medea+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

JS Saoura ↓

Olympique Medea →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–17%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

JS Saoura or draw
85%
JS Saoura or Olympique Medea
76%
Draw or Olympique Medea
39%

Winning margin

JS Saoura wins by 2+
34%
Olympique Medea wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

JS Saoura 1+ goals
80%
JS Saoura 2+ goals
48%
JS Saoura 3+ goals
22%
Olympique Medea 1+ goals
48%
Olympique Medea 2+ goals
14%
Olympique Medea 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

JS Saoura (draw refunded)
81%
Olympique Medea (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

JS Saoura at home — creates 1.77, concedes 0.62 · 109 matches

Olympique Medea away — creates 0.68, concedes 1.47 · 53 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

JS Saoura attack 1.77 + Olympique Medea defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.62

Olympique Medea attack 0.68 + JS Saoura defence 0.62 → ÷2 → 0.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

JS Saoura scores more
61%
level
24%
Olympique Medea scores more
15%

JS Saoura at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "JS Saoura will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

JS Saoura 2 – 0 Olympique Medea

JS Saoura beat Olympique Medea 2-0 in Ligue 1 on March 17, 2018.

The match was played at Stade du 20 Août 1955 (Bechar).