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JS Kabylie vs Wydad AC — CAF Champions League 2019

JS Kabylie
JS Kabylie
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Wydad AC
Wydad AC
B. Souyad 87'
2/17/2023CAF Champions LeagueCAF Champions League · Group A - 2Stade du 5 Juillet 1962

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

JS Kabylie50%
×Draw32%
Wydad AC18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

JS Kabylie
1.12
Wydad AC
0.55

JS Kabylie creates 104% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 29 away

creates per match

JS Kabylie
1.27
Wydad AC
0.83

allows per match

JS Kabylie
0.27
Wydad AC
0.97

finishing

JS Kabylie+0.00on par
Wydad AC+0.00on par

Total goals

77%Under
  • Under77
  • Over23

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

72%No
  • No72
  • Yes28

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

JS Kabylie ↓

Wydad AC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–019%
0–110%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–021%
1–112%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–16%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (21%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
81%19%1.5
50%50%2.5
23%77%3.5
9%91%4.5
3%97%

Double chance

JS Kabylie or draw
82%
JS Kabylie or Wydad AC
68%
Draw or Wydad AC
50%

Winning margin

JS Kabylie wins by 2+
21%
Wydad AC wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

JS Kabylie 1+ goals
67%
JS Kabylie 2+ goals
31%
JS Kabylie 3+ goals
10%
Wydad AC 1+ goals
42%
Wydad AC 2+ goals
11%
Wydad AC 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

JS Kabylie (draw refunded)
73%
Wydad AC (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
17%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

JS Kabylie at home — creates 1.27, concedes 0.27 · 15 matches

Wydad AC away — creates 0.83, concedes 0.97 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

JS Kabylie attack 1.27 + Wydad AC defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.12

Wydad AC attack 0.83 + JS Kabylie defence 0.27 → ÷2 → 0.55

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

JS Kabylie scores more
50%
level
32%
Wydad AC scores more
18%

JS Kabylie at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "JS Kabylie will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

23
O. GattalJS KabylieJS Kabylie · D
7.9

Match Events

26'
H. Ahadad← R. Jaadi
29'
Yahia Attiyat Allah
46'
B. Sambou← D. Lamkel Zé
56'
A. Haimoud← H. Ahadad
62'
K. Boualia← Y. Guenina
82'
L. Ouattara← R. Zerdoum
82'
M. Boumechra← N. Ould Hamou
85'
M. Ounajem← A. El Hassouni
85'
H. Boussefiane← S. Bouhra
87'
B. Souyad↳ K. Boualia
88'
Badreddine Souyad
90'
M. Benzaid← D. Mouaki

Possession

39%JS

Shots

10JS

Pass accuracy

47%JS

Statistics

JSWydad
Overview
39%Possession61%
10Total Shots6
3Corners4
16Fouls19
Shots
10Total Shots6
5On Target0
5Off Target4
0Blocked2
4Inside Box5
6Outside Box1
Passing
39%Possession61%
316Total Passes474
230Accurate Passes382
73%Pass Accuracy81%
Goalkeeping
0Saves4
Discipline
16Fouls19
1Yellow Cards1
2Offsides2

CAF Champions League: JS Kabylie 1–0 Wydad AC

JS Kabylie beat Wydad AC 1-0 in CAF Champions League on February 17, 2023.

Goals: B. Souyad (87').

Wydad AC controlled possession (61%) and registered 6 shots to 10.

The match was played at Stade du 5 Juillet 1962 in Algiers.