Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

JS Kabylie vs Horoya — CAF Champions League 2019

JS Kabylie
JS Kabylie
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Horoya
Horoya
9/14/2019CAF Champions LeagueCAF Champions League · 1st RoundStade du 1er Novembre 1954

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

JS Kabylie64%
×Draw27%
Horoya9%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

JS Kabylie
1.42
Horoya
0.36

JS Kabylie creates 294% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 17 away

creates per match

JS Kabylie
1.25
Horoya
0.47

allows per match

JS Kabylie
0.25
Horoya
1.59

finishing

JS Kabylie+0.00on par
Horoya+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Under
  • Under74
  • Over26

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

77%No
  • No77
  • Yes23

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

JS Kabylie ↓

Horoya →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–017%
0–16%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–024%
1–19%
1–22%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–017%
2–16%
2–21%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (24%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
83%17%1.5
53%47%2.5
26%74%3.5
10%90%4.5
3%97%

Double chance

JS Kabylie or draw
91%
JS Kabylie or Horoya
73%
Draw or Horoya
36%

Winning margin

JS Kabylie wins by 2+
33%
Horoya wins by 2+
1%

Team goals

JS Kabylie 1+ goals
76%
JS Kabylie 2+ goals
41%
JS Kabylie 3+ goals
17%
Horoya 1+ goals
30%
Horoya 2+ goals
5%
Horoya 3+ goals
1%

Draw no bet

JS Kabylie (draw refunded)
87%
Horoya (draw refunded)
13%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
14%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

JS Kabylie at home — creates 1.25, concedes 0.25 · 16 matches

Horoya away — creates 0.47, concedes 1.59 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

JS Kabylie attack 1.25 + Horoya defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.42

Horoya attack 0.47 + JS Kabylie defence 0.25 → ÷2 → 0.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

JS Kabylie scores more
64%
level
27%
Horoya scores more
9%

JS Kabylie at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "JS Kabylie will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: JS Kabylie vs Horoya

JS Kabylie beat Horoya 2-0 in CAF Champions League on September 14, 2019.

The match was played at Stade du 1er Novembre 1954 in Tizi-Ouzou.