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Horoya vs JS Kabylie — CAF Champions League 2019

Horoya
Horoya
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
JS Kabylie
JS Kabylie
H. Makambo 88'
A. Bancé 73'
9/29/2019CAF Champions LeagueCAF Champions League · 1st RoundStade du 28 Septembre

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Horoya56%
×Draw26%
JS Kabylie18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Horoya
1.52
JS Kabylie
0.73

Horoya creates 108% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 16 away

creates per match

Horoya
1.35
JS Kabylie
0.75

allows per match

Horoya
0.71
JS Kabylie
1.69

finishing

Horoya+0.00on par
JS Kabylie+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Horoya ↓

JS Kabylie →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Horoya or draw
82%
Horoya or JS Kabylie
74%
Draw or JS Kabylie
44%

Winning margin

Horoya wins by 2+
29%
JS Kabylie wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Horoya 1+ goals
78%
Horoya 2+ goals
45%
Horoya 3+ goals
20%
JS Kabylie 1+ goals
52%
JS Kabylie 2+ goals
17%
JS Kabylie 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Horoya (draw refunded)
76%
JS Kabylie (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Horoya at home — creates 1.35, concedes 0.71 · 17 matches

JS Kabylie away — creates 0.75, concedes 1.69 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Horoya attack 1.35 + JS Kabylie defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.52

JS Kabylie attack 0.75 + Horoya defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Horoya scores more
56%
level
26%
JS Kabylie scores more
18%

Horoya at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Horoya will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

40'
B. Souyad
73'
A. Bancé
88'
H. Makambo

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

CAF Champions League: Horoya 2–0 JS Kabylie

Horoya beat JS Kabylie 2-0 in CAF Champions League on September 29, 2019.

Goals: A. Bancé (73'), H. Makambo (88').

The match was played at Stade du 28 Septembre in Conakry.