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Jove Español vs Castellón II — Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 2019

Jove Español
Jove Español
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Castellón II
Castellón II
3/26/2023Tercera División RFEF - Group 6Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 · Group 6 - 26Ciudad Deportiva de San Vicente del Raspeig

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 67+ matches

Jove Español42%
×Draw27%
Castellón II30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Jove Español
1.32
Castellón II
1.08

Jove Español creates 22% more chances

Season form · 109 home / 67 away

creates per match

Jove Español
1.10
Castellón II
1.22

allows per match

Jove Español
0.94
Castellón II
1.54

finishing

Jove Español+0.00on par
Castellón II+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jove Español ↓

Castellón II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Jove Español or draw
70%
Jove Español or Castellón II
73%
Draw or Castellón II
58%

Winning margin

Jove Español wins by 2+
19%
Castellón II wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Jove Español 1+ goals
73%
Jove Español 2+ goals
38%
Jove Español 3+ goals
15%
Castellón II 1+ goals
66%
Castellón II 2+ goals
29%
Castellón II 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Jove Español (draw refunded)
58%
Castellón II (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jove Español at home — creates 1.10, concedes 0.94 · 109 matches

Castellón II away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.54 · 67 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jove Español attack 1.10 + Castellón II defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.32

Castellón II attack 1.22 + Jove Español defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Jove Español scores more
42%
level
27%
Castellón II scores more
30%

Jove Español at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Jove Español will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Jove Español vs Castellón II

Castellón II beat Jove Español 2-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 on March 26, 2023.

The match was played at Ciudad Deportiva de San Vicente del Raspeig in San Vicente del Raspeig.