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Castellón II vs Jove Español — Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 2019

Castellón II
Castellón II
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Jove Español
Jove Español
1/15/2025Tercera División RFEF - Group 6Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 · Group 6 - 10Camp de futbol Javier Marquina

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 67+ matches

Castellón II44%
×Draw28%
Jove Español28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Castellón II
1.34
Jove Español
1.01

Castellón II creates 33% more chances

Season form · 67 home / 110 away

creates per match

Castellón II
1.48
Jove Español
0.86

allows per match

Castellón II
1.16
Jove Español
1.21

finishing

Castellón II+0.00on par
Jove Español+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Castellón II ↓

Jove Español →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Castellón II or draw
72%
Castellón II or Jove Español
72%
Draw or Jove Español
56%

Winning margin

Castellón II wins by 2+
21%
Jove Español wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Castellón II 1+ goals
74%
Castellón II 2+ goals
39%
Castellón II 3+ goals
15%
Jove Español 1+ goals
64%
Jove Español 2+ goals
27%
Jove Español 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Castellón II (draw refunded)
61%
Jove Español (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Castellón II at home — creates 1.48, concedes 1.16 · 67 matches

Jove Español away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.21 · 110 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Castellón II attack 1.48 + Jove Español defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.34

Jove Español attack 0.86 + Castellón II defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Castellón II scores more
44%
level
28%
Jove Español scores more
28%

Castellón II at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Castellón II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Castellón II 2 – 1 Jove Español

Castellón II beat Jove Español 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 on January 15, 2025.

The match was played at Camp de futbol Javier Marquina in Castellón de la Plana.