Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Jove Español vs Atzeneta — Tercera División RFEF - Promotion - Play-offs 2022

Jove Español
Jove Español
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Atzeneta
Atzeneta
6/8/2024Tercera División RFEF - Promotion - Play-offsTercera División RFEF - Promotion - Play-offs · Promotion Play-offs - 2nd RoundCiudad Deportiva de San Vicente del Raspeig

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Jove Español24%
×Draw47%
Atzeneta29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Jove Español
0.46
Atzeneta
0.54

Atzeneta creates 17% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 4 away

creates per match

Jove Español
0.67
Atzeneta
0.75

allows per match

Jove Español
0.33
Atzeneta
0.25

finishing

Jove Español+0.00on par
Atzeneta+0.00on par

Total goals

92%Under
  • Under92
  • Over8

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

85%No
  • No85
  • Yes15

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jove Español ↓

Atzeneta →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–037%
0–120%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–19%
1–22%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–04%
2–12%
2–21%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–01%
3–10%
3–20%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (37%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
63%37%1.5
26%74%2.5
8%92%3.5
2%98%4.5
0%100%

Double chance

Jove Español or draw
71%
Jove Español or Atzeneta
53%
Draw or Atzeneta
76%

Winning margin

Jove Español wins by 2+
5%
Atzeneta wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Jove Español 1+ goals
37%
Jove Español 2+ goals
8%
Jove Español 3+ goals
1%
Atzeneta 1+ goals
42%
Atzeneta 2+ goals
10%
Atzeneta 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Jove Español (draw refunded)
45%
Atzeneta (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
6%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jove Español at home — creates 0.67, concedes 0.33 · 3 matches

Atzeneta away — creates 0.75, concedes 0.25 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jove Español attack 0.67 + Atzeneta defence 0.25 → ÷2 → 0.46

Atzeneta attack 0.75 + Jove Español defence 0.33 → ÷2 → 0.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 29%?"

Jove Español scores more
24%
level
47%
Atzeneta scores more
29%

Atzeneta at 29% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 29% does not mean "Atzeneta will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Jove Español vs Atzeneta

Jove Español beat Atzeneta 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Promotion - Play-offs on June 8, 2024.

The match was played at Ciudad Deportiva de San Vicente del Raspeig in San Vicente del Raspeig.