Atzeneta 2–1 Jove Español: Result & Stats

Atzeneta

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Jove Español

10/18/2025

Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 · Group 6 - 7Campo De Futbol El Regit

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 98+ matches

Atzeneta46%

×Draw29%

Jove Español25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AtzenetaExpected goals in this matchJove Español

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.28

0.86

Atzeneta

1.28

Jove Español

0.86

Atzeneta creates 49% more chances

Season form · 98 home / 110 away

1.35

creates per match

0.86

0.87

allows per match

1.21

creates per match

Atzeneta

1.35

Jove Español

0.86

allows per match

Atzeneta

0.87

Jove Español

1.21

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Atzeneta+0.00on par

Jove Español+0.00on par

Total goals

Under64
Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atzeneta ↓

Jove Español →

0–012%

0–110%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1–015%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2–010%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

63%37%2.5

36%64%3.5

17%83%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Atzeneta or draw

75%

Atzeneta or Jove Español

71%

Draw or Jove Español

54%

Winning margin

Atzeneta wins by 2+

21%

Jove Español wins by 2+

Team goals

Atzeneta 1+ goals

72%

Atzeneta 2+ goals

37%

Atzeneta 3+ goals

14%

Jove Español 1+ goals

58%

Jove Español 2+ goals

21%

Jove Español 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Atzeneta (draw refunded)

65%

Jove Español (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Atzeneta at home — creates 1.35, concedes 0.87 · 98 matches

Jove Español away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.21 · 110 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Atzeneta attack 1.35 + Jove Español defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.28

Jove Español attack 0.86 + Atzeneta defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 46%?"

Atzeneta scores more

46%

level

29%

Jove Español scores more

25%

Atzeneta at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Atzeneta will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff