Joseense 1–0 Jabaquara: Result & Stats

Joseense

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Jabaquara

Kaynan 76'

2/18/2025

League #1062 · 1st Phase - 8Estádio Joaquim de Morais Filho

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Joseense42%

×Draw32%

Jabaquara26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

JoseenseExpected goals in this matchJabaquara

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.08

0.79

Joseense

1.08

Jabaquara

0.79

Joseense creates 37% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 3 away

1.50

creates per match

0.33

1.25

allows per match

0.67

creates per match

Joseense

1.50

Jabaquara

0.33

allows per match

Joseense

1.25

Jabaquara

0.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Joseense+0.00on par

Jabaquara+0.00on par

Total goals

Under71
Over29

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No64
Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Joseense ↓

Jabaquara →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–015%

0–112%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–017%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

85%15%1.5

56%44%2.5

29%71%3.5

12%88%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

Joseense or draw

74%

Joseense or Jabaquara

68%

Draw or Jabaquara

58%

Winning margin

Joseense wins by 2+

17%

Jabaquara wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Joseense 1+ goals

66%

Joseense 2+ goals

29%

Joseense 3+ goals

10%

Jabaquara 1+ goals

55%

Jabaquara 2+ goals

19%

Jabaquara 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Joseense (draw refunded)

61%

Jabaquara (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

23%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Joseense at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.25 · 4 matches

Jabaquara away — creates 0.33, concedes 0.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Joseense attack 1.50 + Jabaquara defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 1.08

Jabaquara attack 0.33 + Joseense defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 0.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Joseense scores more

42%

level

32%

Jabaquara scores more

26%

Joseense at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Joseense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

76'

Kaynan

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff