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Jabaquara vs Joseense — League #1062 2026

Jabaquara
Jabaquara
FT
4 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Joseense
Joseense
V. D. Santos M. 62', 2'
Tiago 54'
G. Oliveira 51'
3/2/2024League #1062League #1062 · 1st Phase - 9Estádio Espanha

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Jabaquara49%
×Draw26%
Joseense25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Jabaquara
1.50
Joseense
0.98

Jabaquara creates 53% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 5 away

creates per match

Jabaquara
2.00
Joseense
0.80

allows per match

Jabaquara
1.17
Joseense
1.00

finishing

Jabaquara+0.00on par
Joseense+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jabaquara ↓

Joseense →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Jabaquara or draw
75%
Jabaquara or Joseense
74%
Draw or Joseense
51%

Winning margin

Jabaquara wins by 2+
25%
Joseense wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Jabaquara 1+ goals
78%
Jabaquara 2+ goals
44%
Jabaquara 3+ goals
19%
Joseense 1+ goals
62%
Joseense 2+ goals
26%
Joseense 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Jabaquara (draw refunded)
67%
Joseense (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jabaquara at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.17 · 6 matches

Joseense away — creates 0.80, concedes 1.00 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jabaquara attack 2.00 + Joseense defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.50

Joseense attack 0.80 + Jabaquara defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Jabaquara scores more
49%
level
26%
Joseense scores more
25%

Jabaquara at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Jabaquara will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

2'
V. D. Santos M.
45+3'
P. Gustavo
51'
G. Oliveira
54'
Tiago
62'
V. D. Santos M.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League #1062: Jabaquara 4–0 Joseense

Jabaquara beat Joseense 4-0 in League #1062 on March 2, 2024.

Goals: V. D. Santos M. (2', 62'), G. Oliveira (51'), Tiago (54').

The match was played at Estádio Espanha in Santos, São Paulo.