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José Bonifácio vs Assisense — Paulista Série B 2026

José Bonifácio
José Bonifácio
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Assisense
Assisense
Kaua Caveiro 6'
6/14/2026Paulista Série BPaulista Série B · Round 9

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

José Bonifácio46%
×Draw28%
Assisense26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

José Bonifácio
1.36
Assisense
0.95

José Bonifácio creates 43% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 13 away

creates per match

José Bonifácio
1.57
Assisense
0.77

allows per match

José Bonifácio
1.14
Assisense
1.15

finishing

José Bonifácio+0.00on par
Assisense+0.00on par

Total goals

Under: 59Over: 4159%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No: 54Yes: 4654%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

José Bonifácio ↓

Assisense →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

José Bonifácio or draw
74%
José Bonifácio or Assisense
72%
Draw or Assisense
54%

Winning margin

José Bonifácio wins by 2+
22%
Assisense wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

José Bonifácio 1+ goals
74%
José Bonifácio 2+ goals
39%
José Bonifácio 3+ goals
16%
Assisense 1+ goals
61%
Assisense 2+ goals
25%
Assisense 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

José Bonifácio (draw refunded)
64%
Assisense (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

José Bonifácio at home — creates 1.57, concedes 1.14 · 7 matches

Assisense away — creates 0.77, concedes 1.15 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

José Bonifácio attack 1.57 + Assisense defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.36

Assisense attack 0.77 + José Bonifácio defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

José Bonifácio scores more
46%
level
28%
Assisense scores more
26%

José Bonifácio at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "José Bonifácio will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

6'
Kaua Caveiro
52'
90+2'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Paulista Série B: José Bonifácio 1–0 Assisense

José Bonifácio beat Assisense 1-0 in Paulista Série B on June 14, 2026.

Goals: Kaua Caveiro (6').