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Assisense vs José Bonifácio — Paulista Série B 2026

Assisense
Assisense
FT
2 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
José Bonifácio
José Bonifácio
J. S. Fernando 83'
Murilo 74'
Kaua Caveiro 55'
G. Andrade 45' (pen)
5/8/2026Paulista Série BPaulista Série B · Round 4

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Assisense26%
×Draw24%
José Bonifácio50%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Assisense
1.18
José Bonifácio
1.74

José Bonifácio creates 47% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 7 away

creates per match

Assisense
1.92
José Bonifácio
1.71

allows per match

Assisense
1.77
José Bonifácio
0.43

finishing

Assisense+0.00on par
José Bonifácio+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 56Under: 4456%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 57No: 4357%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Assisense ↓

José Bonifácio →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–19%
0–28%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Assisense or draw
50%
Assisense or José Bonifácio
76%
Draw or José Bonifácio
74%

Winning margin

Assisense wins by 2+
10%
José Bonifácio wins by 2+
27%

Team goals

Assisense 1+ goals
69%
Assisense 2+ goals
33%
Assisense 3+ goals
12%
José Bonifácio 1+ goals
82%
José Bonifácio 2+ goals
52%
José Bonifácio 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Assisense (draw refunded)
34%
José Bonifácio (draw refunded)
66%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Assisense at home — creates 1.92, concedes 1.77 · 13 matches

José Bonifácio away — creates 1.71, concedes 0.43 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Assisense attack 1.92 + José Bonifácio defence 0.43 → ÷2 → 1.18

José Bonifácio attack 1.71 + Assisense defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Assisense scores more
26%
level
24%
José Bonifácio scores more
50%

José Bonifácio at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "José Bonifácio will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

16'
D'Avila
45+1'
Yuri
45+1'
Yuri
45'
G. AndradePenalty
55'
Kaua Caveiro
74'
Murilo
83'
J. S. Fernando

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Assisense vs José Bonifácio

Assisense and José Bonifácio drew 2-2 in Paulista Série B on May 8, 2026.

Goals: G. Andrade (45' pen), Kaua Caveiro (55'), Murilo (74'), J. S. Fernando (83').