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JOS Watergraafsmeer vs DEM — Derde Divisie - Sunday 2019

JOS Watergraafsmeer
JOS Watergraafsmeer
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
DEM
DEM
11/23/2022Derde Divisie - SundayDerde Divisie - Sunday · Zondag - 5Sportpark Drie Burg

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

JOS Watergraafsmeer34%
×Draw24%
DEM42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

JOS Watergraafsmeer
1.45
DEM
1.63

DEM creates 12% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 48 away

creates per match

JOS Watergraafsmeer
1.38
DEM
1.23

allows per match

JOS Watergraafsmeer
2.03
DEM
1.52

finishing

JOS Watergraafsmeer+0.00on par
DEM+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

JOS Watergraafsmeer ↓

DEM →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

JOS Watergraafsmeer or draw
58%
JOS Watergraafsmeer or DEM
76%
Draw or DEM
66%

Winning margin

JOS Watergraafsmeer wins by 2+
16%
DEM wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

JOS Watergraafsmeer 1+ goals
77%
JOS Watergraafsmeer 2+ goals
42%
JOS Watergraafsmeer 3+ goals
18%
DEM 1+ goals
80%
DEM 2+ goals
48%
DEM 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

JOS Watergraafsmeer (draw refunded)
45%
DEM (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

JOS Watergraafsmeer at home — creates 1.38, concedes 2.03 · 37 matches

DEM away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.52 · 48 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

JOS Watergraafsmeer attack 1.38 + DEM defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.45

DEM attack 1.23 + JOS Watergraafsmeer defence 2.03 → ÷2 → 1.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

JOS Watergraafsmeer scores more
34%
level
24%
DEM scores more
42%

DEM at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "DEM will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Derde Divisie - Sunday: JOS Watergraafsmeer 1–1 DEM

JOS Watergraafsmeer and DEM drew 1-1 in Derde Divisie - Sunday on November 23, 2022.

The match was played at Sportpark Drie Burg in Amsterdam.