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DEM vs JOS Watergraafsmeer — Derde Divisie - Sunday 2019

DEM
DEM
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
JOS Watergraafsmeer
JOS Watergraafsmeer
2/12/2023Derde Divisie - SundayDerde Divisie - Sunday · Zondag - 22Sportpark Adrichem

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

DEM49%
×Draw22%
JOS Watergraafsmeer29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

DEM
1.90
JOS Watergraafsmeer
1.42

DEM creates 34% more chances

Season form · 47 home / 37 away

creates per match

DEM
1.55
JOS Watergraafsmeer
1.27

allows per match

DEM
1.57
JOS Watergraafsmeer
2.24

finishing

DEM+0.00on par
JOS Watergraafsmeer+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

DEM ↓

JOS Watergraafsmeer →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

DEM or draw
71%
DEM or JOS Watergraafsmeer
78%
Draw or JOS Watergraafsmeer
51%

Winning margin

DEM wins by 2+
27%
JOS Watergraafsmeer wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

DEM 1+ goals
85%
DEM 2+ goals
56%
DEM 3+ goals
29%
JOS Watergraafsmeer 1+ goals
76%
JOS Watergraafsmeer 2+ goals
41%
JOS Watergraafsmeer 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

DEM (draw refunded)
63%
JOS Watergraafsmeer (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

DEM at home — creates 1.55, concedes 1.57 · 47 matches

JOS Watergraafsmeer away — creates 1.27, concedes 2.24 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

DEM attack 1.55 + JOS Watergraafsmeer defence 2.24 → ÷2 → 1.90

JOS Watergraafsmeer attack 1.27 + DEM defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

DEM scores more
49%
level
22%
JOS Watergraafsmeer scores more
29%

DEM at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "DEM will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: DEM vs JOS Watergraafsmeer

DEM and JOS Watergraafsmeer drew 1-1 in Derde Divisie - Sunday on February 12, 2023.

The match was played at Sportpark Adrichem in Beverwijk.