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Jorge Wilstermann vs Independiente Petrolero — Primera División 2026

Jorge Wilstermann
Jorge Wilstermann
FT
3 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Independiente Petrolero
Independiente Petrolero
12/21/2024Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Clausura - 30Estadio Félix Capriles

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 91+ matches

Jorge Wilstermann52%
×Draw23%
Independiente Petrolero25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Jorge Wilstermann
1.83
Independiente Petrolero
1.20

Jorge Wilstermann creates 53% more chances

Season form · 124 home / 91 away

creates per match

Jorge Wilstermann
1.74
Independiente Petrolero
1.26

allows per match

Jorge Wilstermann
1.14
Independiente Petrolero
1.93

finishing

Jorge Wilstermann+0.00on par
Independiente Petrolero+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jorge Wilstermann ↓

Independiente Petrolero →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Jorge Wilstermann or draw
75%
Jorge Wilstermann or Independiente Petrolero
77%
Draw or Independiente Petrolero
48%

Winning margin

Jorge Wilstermann wins by 2+
29%
Independiente Petrolero wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Jorge Wilstermann 1+ goals
84%
Jorge Wilstermann 2+ goals
54%
Jorge Wilstermann 3+ goals
28%
Independiente Petrolero 1+ goals
70%
Independiente Petrolero 2+ goals
34%
Independiente Petrolero 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Jorge Wilstermann (draw refunded)
68%
Independiente Petrolero (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jorge Wilstermann at home — creates 1.74, concedes 1.14 · 124 matches

Independiente Petrolero away — creates 1.26, concedes 1.93 · 91 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jorge Wilstermann attack 1.74 + Independiente Petrolero defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 1.83

Independiente Petrolero attack 1.26 + Jorge Wilstermann defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Jorge Wilstermann scores more
52%
level
23%
Independiente Petrolero scores more
25%

Jorge Wilstermann at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Jorge Wilstermann will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Jorge Wilstermann vs Independiente Petrolero

Jorge Wilstermann beat Independiente Petrolero 3-2 in Primera División on December 21, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Félix Capriles in Cochabamba.