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Independiente Petrolero vs Jorge Wilstermann — Primera División 2026

Independiente Petrolero
Independiente Petrolero
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 2
Jorge Wilstermann
Jorge Wilstermann
9/22/2024Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Clausura - 15Estadio Olímpico Patria

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 91+ matches

Independiente Petrolero48%
×Draw24%
Jorge Wilstermann27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Independiente Petrolero
1.64
Jorge Wilstermann
1.17

Independiente Petrolero creates 40% more chances

Season form · 91 home / 123 away

creates per match

Independiente Petrolero
1.75
Jorge Wilstermann
1.12

allows per match

Independiente Petrolero
1.21
Jorge Wilstermann
1.52

finishing

Independiente Petrolero+0.00on par
Jorge Wilstermann+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Independiente Petrolero ↓

Jorge Wilstermann →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Independiente Petrolero or draw
73%
Independiente Petrolero or Jorge Wilstermann
76%
Draw or Jorge Wilstermann
52%

Winning margin

Independiente Petrolero wins by 2+
25%
Jorge Wilstermann wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Independiente Petrolero 1+ goals
81%
Independiente Petrolero 2+ goals
49%
Independiente Petrolero 3+ goals
23%
Jorge Wilstermann 1+ goals
69%
Jorge Wilstermann 2+ goals
33%
Jorge Wilstermann 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Independiente Petrolero (draw refunded)
64%
Jorge Wilstermann (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Independiente Petrolero at home — creates 1.75, concedes 1.21 · 91 matches

Jorge Wilstermann away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.52 · 123 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Independiente Petrolero attack 1.75 + Jorge Wilstermann defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.64

Jorge Wilstermann attack 1.12 + Independiente Petrolero defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Independiente Petrolero scores more
48%
level
24%
Jorge Wilstermann scores more
27%

Independiente Petrolero at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Independiente Petrolero will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera División: Independiente Petrolero 2–2 Jorge Wilstermann

Independiente Petrolero and Jorge Wilstermann drew 2-2 in Primera División on September 22, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Olímpico Patria in Sucre.