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Jorge Wilstermann vs Club Destroyers — Primera División 2019

Jorge Wilstermann
Jorge Wilstermann
FT
7 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Club Destroyers
Club Destroyers
12/1/2019Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Clausura - 18Estadio Félix Capriles (Cochabamba)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Jorge Wilstermann69%
×Draw18%
Club Destroyers13%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Jorge Wilstermann
2.27
Club Destroyers
0.86

Jorge Wilstermann creates 164% more chances

Season form · 124 home / 26 away

creates per match

Jorge Wilstermann
1.74
Club Destroyers
0.58

allows per match

Jorge Wilstermann
1.14
Club Destroyers
2.81

finishing

Jorge Wilstermann+0.00on par
Club Destroyers+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jorge Wilstermann ↓

Club Destroyers →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–19%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Jorge Wilstermann or draw
87%
Jorge Wilstermann or Club Destroyers
82%
Draw or Club Destroyers
31%

Winning margin

Jorge Wilstermann wins by 2+
45%
Club Destroyers wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Jorge Wilstermann 1+ goals
90%
Jorge Wilstermann 2+ goals
66%
Jorge Wilstermann 3+ goals
39%
Club Destroyers 1+ goals
58%
Club Destroyers 2+ goals
21%
Club Destroyers 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Jorge Wilstermann (draw refunded)
84%
Club Destroyers (draw refunded)
16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jorge Wilstermann at home — creates 1.74, concedes 1.14 · 124 matches

Club Destroyers away — creates 0.58, concedes 2.81 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jorge Wilstermann attack 1.74 + Club Destroyers defence 2.81 → ÷2 → 2.27

Club Destroyers attack 0.58 + Jorge Wilstermann defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

Jorge Wilstermann scores more
69%
level
18%
Club Destroyers scores more
13%

Jorge Wilstermann at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "Jorge Wilstermann will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera División: Jorge Wilstermann 7–1 Club Destroyers

Jorge Wilstermann beat Club Destroyers 7-1 in Primera División on December 1, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio Félix Capriles (Cochabamba).