Club Destroyers 0–3 Jorge Wilstermann

Club Destroyers

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 2

Jorge Wilstermann

5/12/2019

Primera División · Apertura - 23Estadio Samuel Vaca Jimenez (Warnes)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Club Destroyers39%

×Draw27%

Jorge Wilstermann35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Club DestroyersExpected goals in this matchJorge Wilstermann

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.33

1.25

Club Destroyers

1.33

Jorge Wilstermann

1.25

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 26 home / 123 away

1.15

creates per match

1.12

1.38

allows per match

1.52

creates per match

Club Destroyers

1.15

Jorge Wilstermann

1.12

allows per match

Club Destroyers

1.38

Jorge Wilstermann

1.52

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Club Destroyers+0.00on par

Jorge Wilstermann+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Club Destroyers ↓

Jorge Wilstermann →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Club Destroyers or draw

65%

Club Destroyers or Jorge Wilstermann

73%

Draw or Jorge Wilstermann

61%

Winning margin

Club Destroyers wins by 2+

17%

Jorge Wilstermann wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Club Destroyers 1+ goals

74%

Club Destroyers 2+ goals

38%

Club Destroyers 3+ goals

15%

Jorge Wilstermann 1+ goals

71%

Jorge Wilstermann 2+ goals

36%

Jorge Wilstermann 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Club Destroyers (draw refunded)

53%

Jorge Wilstermann (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Club Destroyers at home — creates 1.15, concedes 1.38 · 26 matches

Jorge Wilstermann away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.52 · 123 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Club Destroyers attack 1.15 + Jorge Wilstermann defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.33

Jorge Wilstermann attack 1.12 + Club Destroyers defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Club Destroyers scores more

39%

level

27%

Jorge Wilstermann scores more

35%

Club Destroyers at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Club Destroyers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff