Jorge Wilstermann 1–1 Aurora: Result & Stats

Jorge Wilstermann

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Aurora

3/10/2024

Primera División · Apertura - 5Estadio Félix Capriles

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 124+ matches

Jorge Wilstermann54%

×Draw23%

Aurora23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Jorge WilstermannExpected goals in this matchAurora

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.79

1.08

Jorge Wilstermann

1.79

Aurora

1.08

Jorge Wilstermann creates 66% more chances

Season form · 124 home / 130 away

1.74

creates per match

1.02

1.14

allows per match

1.85

creates per match

Jorge Wilstermann

1.74

Aurora

1.02

allows per match

Jorge Wilstermann

1.14

Aurora

1.85

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Jorge Wilstermann+0.00on par

Aurora+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jorge Wilstermann ↓

Aurora →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Jorge Wilstermann or draw

77%

Jorge Wilstermann or Aurora

77%

Draw or Aurora

46%

Winning margin

Jorge Wilstermann wins by 2+

30%

Aurora wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Jorge Wilstermann 1+ goals

83%

Jorge Wilstermann 2+ goals

53%

Jorge Wilstermann 3+ goals

26%

Aurora 1+ goals

66%

Aurora 2+ goals

29%

Aurora 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Jorge Wilstermann (draw refunded)

70%

Aurora (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jorge Wilstermann at home — creates 1.74, concedes 1.14 · 124 matches

Aurora away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.85 · 130 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jorge Wilstermann attack 1.74 + Aurora defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 1.79

Aurora attack 1.02 + Jorge Wilstermann defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Jorge Wilstermann scores more

54%

level

23%

Aurora scores more

23%

Jorge Wilstermann at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Jorge Wilstermann will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff