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Aurora vs Jorge Wilstermann — Primera División 2026

Aurora
Aurora
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Jorge Wilstermann
Jorge Wilstermann
11/30/2025Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Apertura - 26

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 123+ matches

Aurora47%
×Draw25%
Jorge Wilstermann28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Aurora
1.56
Jorge Wilstermann
1.16

Aurora creates 34% more chances

Season form · 128 home / 123 away

creates per match

Aurora
1.60
Jorge Wilstermann
1.12

allows per match

Aurora
1.20
Jorge Wilstermann
1.52

finishing

Aurora+0.00on par
Jorge Wilstermann+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Aurora ↓

Jorge Wilstermann →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Aurora or draw
72%
Aurora or Jorge Wilstermann
75%
Draw or Jorge Wilstermann
53%

Winning margin

Aurora wins by 2+
24%
Jorge Wilstermann wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Aurora 1+ goals
79%
Aurora 2+ goals
46%
Aurora 3+ goals
21%
Jorge Wilstermann 1+ goals
69%
Jorge Wilstermann 2+ goals
32%
Jorge Wilstermann 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Aurora (draw refunded)
62%
Jorge Wilstermann (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Aurora at home — creates 1.60, concedes 1.20 · 128 matches

Jorge Wilstermann away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.52 · 123 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Aurora attack 1.60 + Jorge Wilstermann defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.56

Jorge Wilstermann attack 1.12 + Aurora defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Aurora scores more
47%
level
25%
Jorge Wilstermann scores more
28%

Aurora at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Aurora will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera División: Aurora 1–0 Jorge Wilstermann

Aurora beat Jorge Wilstermann 1-0 in Primera División on November 30, 2025.