Jorge Wilstermann 0–1 ABB: Result & Stats

Jorge Wilstermann

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

ABB

J. Rivas 79'

4/20/2025

Primera División · Apertura - 4Estadio Félix Capriles

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Jorge Wilstermann63%

×Draw19%

ABB18%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Jorge WilstermannExpected goals in this matchABB

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.25

1.10

Jorge Wilstermann

2.25

ABB

1.10

Jorge Wilstermann creates 105% more chances

Season form · 126 home / 21 away

1.75

creates per match

1.10

1.09

allows per match

2.76

creates per match

Jorge Wilstermann

1.75

ABB

1.10

allows per match

Jorge Wilstermann

1.09

ABB

2.76

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Jorge Wilstermann+0.00on par

ABB+0.00on par

Total goals

Over65
Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jorge Wilstermann ↓

ABB →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–19%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–07%

3–17%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

85%15%2.5

65%35%3.5

43%57%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

Jorge Wilstermann or draw

82%

Jorge Wilstermann or ABB

81%

Draw or ABB

37%

Winning margin

Jorge Wilstermann wins by 2+

40%

ABB wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Jorge Wilstermann 1+ goals

89%

Jorge Wilstermann 2+ goals

65%

Jorge Wilstermann 3+ goals

39%

ABB 1+ goals

67%

ABB 2+ goals

30%

ABB 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Jorge Wilstermann (draw refunded)

78%

ABB (draw refunded)

22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jorge Wilstermann at home — creates 1.75, concedes 1.09 · 126 matches

ABB away — creates 1.10, concedes 2.76 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jorge Wilstermann attack 1.75 + ABB defence 2.76 → ÷2 → 2.25

ABB attack 1.10 + Jorge Wilstermann defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Jorge Wilstermann scores more

63%

level

19%

ABB scores more

18%

Jorge Wilstermann at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Jorge Wilstermann will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

15'

19'

36'

37'

48'

60'

Y. Gutierrez Cuenca← Paulo Henrique

61'

A. Pena← A. Guillermo

61'

Robson← E. Tumiri

61'

E. Paniagua← M. Galindo

64'

Y. Gutierrez Cuenca

74'

I. Rodriguez← J. Mamani

74'

M. Quiroga← M. Salazar

74'

J. Vedia← A. Bejarano

74'

J. Rivas← G. Rea Mendieta

76'

J. Alaca

79'

J. Rivas↳ K. Romay

Jorge

ABB

1

Galarza

21

Meza

4

Monteiro

30

▼

Bejarano

39

Vaca

7

A

Romay

25

▼

Galindo

16

▼

Salazar

3

Alaca

35

▼

Henrique

17

▼

Mendieta

33

Zotes

5

Castillo

14

▼

6

4

3

8

▼

Mamani

11

Tellez

20

▼

Guillermo

7

Caceres

10

Bobadilla

Manager: Humberto Viviani Ribera

61'▲A. Pena←▼A. Guillermo

61'▲Robson←▼E. Tumiri

74'▲I. Rodriguez←▼J. Mamani

Jorge Wilstermann substitutes

12Olivera9Pena16Rodriguez18Barron25Robson26Aliaga27Corrales30Andersen34Ancieta

Manager: Facundo Biondi

60'▲Y. Gutierrez Cuenca←▼Paulo Henrique

61'▲E. Paniagua←▼M. Galindo

74'▲M. Quiroga←▼M. Salazar

74'▲J. Vedia←▼A. Bejarano

74'▲J. Rivas←▼G. Rea Mendieta

ABB substitutes

12Pereira8Quiroga10Vedia14Jemio15Mena34Gutierrez20Paniagua22Anez33Zamora42Ardaya77Rivas19Cuenca

Primera División: Jorge Wilstermann 0–1 ABB

ABB beat Jorge Wilstermann 1-0 in Primera División on April 20, 2025.

Goals: J. Rivas (79').

The match was played at Estadio Félix Capriles in Cochabamba.

Jorge Wilstermann vs ABB — Primera División 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Primera División: Jorge Wilstermann 0–1 ABB