Jordan 4–1 Afghanistan: Result & Stats

Jordan

FT

4 – 1

HT: 3 – 0

Afghanistan

Hamza Al Dardoor 89'

Yaseen Al Bakhit 45' (pen)

Odai Al Saify 33'

Saeed Al Murjan 24'

Zubayr Amiri 72' (pen)

9/5/2017

Asian Cup - Qualification · Group Stage - 3King Abdullah International Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Jordan84%

×Draw12%

Afghanistan5%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

JordanExpected goals in this matchAfghanistan

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.70

0.48

Jordan

2.70

Afghanistan

0.48

Jordan creates 463% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 7 away

3.40

creates per match

0.57

0.40

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

Jordan

3.40

Afghanistan

0.57

allows per match

Jordan

0.40

Afghanistan

2.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Jordan+0.00on par

Afghanistan+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No64
Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jordan ↓

Afghanistan →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–12%

0–20%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–16%

1–21%

1–30%

1–40%

2

2–015%

2–17%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–014%

3–17%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–09%

4–15%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (15%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

38%62%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Jordan or draw

95%

Jordan or Afghanistan

88%

Draw or Afghanistan

16%

Winning margin

Jordan wins by 2+

63%

Afghanistan wins by 2+

1%

Team goals

Jordan 1+ goals

93%

Jordan 2+ goals

75%

Jordan 3+ goals

50%

Afghanistan 1+ goals

38%

Afghanistan 2+ goals

8%

Afghanistan 3+ goals

1%

Draw no bet

Jordan (draw refunded)

95%

Afghanistan (draw refunded)

5%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jordan at home — creates 3.40, concedes 0.40 · 5 matches

Afghanistan away — creates 0.57, concedes 2.00 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jordan attack 3.40 + Afghanistan defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.70

Afghanistan attack 0.57 + Jordan defence 0.40 → ÷2 → 0.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 84%?"

Jordan scores more

84%

level

12%

Afghanistan scores more

5%

Jordan at 84% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 84% does not mean "Jordan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

24'

Saeed Al Murjan

33'

Odai Al Saify

45'

Yaseen Al BakhitPenalty

46'

Omid Popalzay← Balal Arezou

56'

Qays Shayesteh← Abassin Alikhil

67'

Ahmed Samir← Mousa Mohammad Mousa

72'

Zubayr AmiriPenalty

73'

Khaibar Amani← Mustafa Zazai

75'

Yousef Al Rawashdeh← Saeed Al Murjan

87'

Mahmoud Al Mardi← Odai Al Saify

89'

Hamza Al Dardoor

Jordan

Afghanistan

▼

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Murjan

⚽

Bakhit

Baniateya

⚽

▼

Saify

⚽

Dardoor

▼

Mousa

Manager: Abdullah Ahmed Mesfer

67'▲Ahmed Samir←▼Mousa Mohammad Mousa

75'▲Yousef Al Rawashdeh←▼Saeed Al Murjan

87'▲Mahmoud Al Mardi←▼Odai Al Saify

Jordan substitutes

SamirRawashdehMardiFaisalZeyadLahamSamriehKhaterRawabdehHamedAllaRawashdeh

Manager: O. Pfister

46'▲Omid Popalzay←▼Balal Arezou

56'▲Qays Shayesteh←▼Abassin Alikhil

73'▲Khaibar Amani←▼Mustafa Zazai

Afghanistan substitutes

PopalzayShayestehAmaniSharifiShayestehWakilySharzaWahabKouhyarJamali

Match Recap: Jordan vs Afghanistan

Jordan beat Afghanistan 4-1 in Asian Cup - Qualification on September 5, 2017.

Goals: Saeed Al Murjan (24'), Odai Al Saify (33'), Yaseen Al Bakhit (45' pen), Zubayr Amiri (72' pen), Hamza Al Dardoor (89').

The match was played at King Abdullah International Stadium in Amman.

Jordan vs Afghanistan — Asian Cup - Qualification 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Jordan vs Afghanistan