Afghanistan 3–3 Jordan: Result & Stats

Afghanistan

FT

3 – 3

HT: 1 – 2

Jordan

Khaibar Amani 80'

Haroon Fakhruddin 64'

Mohannad Khair Alla 15' (OG)

Mohannad Khair Alla 86'

Odai Al Saify 43' (pen)

Monther Abu Amara 40'

10/10/2017

Asian Cup - Qualification · Group Stage - 4Respublikanskiy Stadion im. M.V. Frunze

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Afghanistan28%

×Draw26%

Jordan46%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AfghanistanExpected goals in this matchJordan

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.06

1.44

Afghanistan

1.06

Jordan

1.44

Jordan creates 36% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 4 away

1.38

creates per match

1.25

1.63

allows per match

0.75

creates per match

Afghanistan

1.38

Jordan

1.25

allows per match

Afghanistan

1.63

Jordan

0.75

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Afghanistan+0.00on par

Jordan+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Afghanistan ↓

Jordan →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–112%

0–29%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–113%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Afghanistan or draw

54%

Afghanistan or Jordan

74%

Draw or Jordan

72%

Winning margin

Afghanistan wins by 2+

11%

Jordan wins by 2+

22%

Team goals

Afghanistan 1+ goals

65%

Afghanistan 2+ goals

29%

Afghanistan 3+ goals

9%

Jordan 1+ goals

76%

Jordan 2+ goals

42%

Jordan 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Afghanistan (draw refunded)

38%

Jordan (draw refunded)

62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Afghanistan at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.63 · 8 matches

Jordan away — creates 1.25, concedes 0.75 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Afghanistan attack 1.38 + Jordan defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 1.06

Jordan attack 1.25 + Afghanistan defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Afghanistan scores more

28%

level

26%

Jordan scores more

46%

Jordan at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Jordan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

15'

Mohannad Khair AllaOwn goal

40'

Monther Abu Amara

43'

Odai Al SaifyPenalty

45+2'

Khaibar Amani← Amiruddin Sharifi

61'

Baha' Faisal← Yaseen Al Bakhit

64'

Haroon Fakhruddin

72'

Ahmed Samir← Rajaei Ayed Fadel

80'

Khaibar Amani

83'

Khalil Baniateyah← Saeed Al Murjan

84'

Amanullah Sardari← Faysal Shayesteh

86'

Mohannad Khair Alla

90'

Balal Arezou← Zubayr Amiri

Afghanistan

Jordan

⚽🥅

▼

▼

⚽

▼

⚽

⚽

▼

▼

▼

Manager: O. Pfister

45+2'▲Khaibar Amani←▼Amiruddin Sharifi

84'▲Amanullah Sardari←▼Faysal Shayesteh

90'▲Balal Arezou←▼Zubayr Amiri

Afghanistan substitutes

AmaniSardariArezouHakimiAtaeeWahabIqbalzadehAzizi

Manager: Abdullah Ahmed Mesfer

61'▲Baha' Faisal←▼Yaseen Al Bakhit

72'▲Ahmed Samir←▼Rajaei Ayed Fadel

83'▲Khalil Baniateyah←▼Saeed Al Murjan

Jordan substitutes

FaisalSamirBaniateyahZoubiZeyadMardiKhaterMousaLahamRawashdehRawashdeh