Jonkopings Sodra vs Trelleborg

Jonkopings Sodra

Preview

14:00

Trelleborg

11/7/2026

Ettan - Södra · Södra - 30Stadsparksvallen

Big match

48%

Trelleborg

model favours

27%26%48%

Jonkopings Sodra score first in only 7% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1

likely score

53%

under 2.5 goals

50%

both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Jonkopings Sodra27%

×Draw26%

Trelleborg48%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Jonkopings SodraExpected goals in this matchTrelleborg

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.05

1.50

Jonkopings Sodra

1.05

Trelleborg

1.50

Trelleborg creates 43% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 7 away

1.54

creates per match

2.29

0.70

allows per match

0.57

creates per match

Jonkopings Sodra

1.54

Trelleborg

2.29

allows per match

Jonkopings Sodra

0.70

Trelleborg

0.57

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Jonkopings Sodra+0.00on par

Trelleborg+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jonkopings Sodra ↓

Trelleborg →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–112%

0–29%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–16%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Jonkopings Sodra or draw

52%

Jonkopings Sodra or Trelleborg

74%

Draw or Trelleborg

73%

Winning margin

Jonkopings Sodra wins by 2+

10%

Trelleborg wins by 2+

24%

Team goals

Jonkopings Sodra 1+ goals

65%

Jonkopings Sodra 2+ goals

28%

Jonkopings Sodra 3+ goals

9%

Trelleborg 1+ goals

78%

Trelleborg 2+ goals

44%

Trelleborg 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Jonkopings Sodra (draw refunded)

36%

Trelleborg (draw refunded)

64%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jonkopings Sodra at home — creates 1.54, concedes 0.70 · 37 matches

Trelleborg away — creates 2.29, concedes 0.57 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jonkopings Sodra attack 1.54 + Trelleborg defence 0.57 → ÷2 → 1.05

Trelleborg attack 2.29 + Jonkopings Sodra defence 0.70 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Jonkopings Sodra scores more

27%

level

26%

Trelleborg scores more

48%

Trelleborg at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Trelleborg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

Trelleborg score first in only 27% of matches
Jonkopings Sodra raise their game against the top half — 58% wins vs the upper half, only 45% vs the lower
Both teams scored in 9 of the last 10 meetings

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form

Sodra

LDLWL

Trelleborg

DWWLW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff