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Jonkopings Sodra vs Halmstad — Superettan 2026

Jonkopings Sodra
Jonkopings Sodra
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Halmstad
Halmstad
E. Hamidovic 8'
10/3/2020SuperettanSuperettan · Round 21Stadsparksvallen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

Jonkopings Sodra33%
×Draw25%
Halmstad41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Jonkopings Sodra
1.29
Halmstad
1.46

Halmstad creates 13% more chances

Season form · 90 home / 60 away

creates per match

Jonkopings Sodra
1.51
Halmstad
1.73

allows per match

Jonkopings Sodra
1.20
Halmstad
1.07

finishing

Jonkopings Sodra+0.00on par
Halmstad+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jonkopings Sodra ↓

Halmstad →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Jonkopings Sodra or draw
59%
Jonkopings Sodra or Halmstad
75%
Draw or Halmstad
67%

Winning margin

Jonkopings Sodra wins by 2+
15%
Halmstad wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Jonkopings Sodra 1+ goals
72%
Jonkopings Sodra 2+ goals
37%
Jonkopings Sodra 3+ goals
14%
Halmstad 1+ goals
77%
Halmstad 2+ goals
43%
Halmstad 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Jonkopings Sodra (draw refunded)
45%
Halmstad (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jonkopings Sodra at home — creates 1.51, concedes 1.20 · 90 matches

Halmstad away — creates 1.73, concedes 1.07 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jonkopings Sodra attack 1.51 + Halmstad defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.29

Halmstad attack 1.73 + Jonkopings Sodra defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Jonkopings Sodra scores more
33%
level
25%
Halmstad scores more
41%

Halmstad at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Halmstad will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

8'
E. Hamidovic
70'
Alhassan Kamara← M. Boman
73'
E. Kurtulus← E. Ahlstrand
77'
Jonathan Svedberg
85'
D. Ljung← M. Zeidan
87'
I. Harrysson← T. Boakye
89'
E. Kwakwa← E. Hamidovic

Possession

48%Jonkopings

Shots

5Jonkopings

Statistics

JonkopingsHalmstad
Overview
48%Possession52%
5Total Shots10
3Corners4
14Fouls12
Shots
5Total Shots10
2On Target2
3Off Target8
Passing
48%Possession52%
Goalkeeping
2Saves1
Discipline
14Fouls12
0Yellow Cards1
0Red Cards0
3Offsides6

Superettan: Jonkopings Sodra 1–0 Halmstad

Jonkopings Sodra beat Halmstad 1-0 in Superettan on October 3, 2020.

Goals: E. Hamidovic (8').

Halmstad controlled possession (52%) and registered 10 shots to 5.

The match was played at Stadsparksvallen in Jönköping.