Halmstad 3–0 Jonkopings Sodra: Result & Stats

Halmstad

FT

3 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Jonkopings Sodra

Alexander Johansson 90+6'

J. Allansson 37'

J. Baffoe 4' (pen)

7/5/2022

Superettan · Round 12Örjans Vall

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 61+ matches

Halmstad50%

×Draw24%

Jonkopings Sodra26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

HalmstadExpected goals in this matchJonkopings Sodra

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.68

1.13

Halmstad

1.68

Jonkopings Sodra

1.13

Halmstad creates 49% more chances

Season form · 61 home / 90 away

1.79

creates per match

1.30

0.95

allows per match

1.56

creates per match

Halmstad

1.79

Jonkopings Sodra

1.30

allows per match

Halmstad

0.95

Jonkopings Sodra

1.56

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Halmstad+0.00on par

Jonkopings Sodra+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Halmstad ↓

Jonkopings Sodra →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Halmstad or draw

74%

Halmstad or Jonkopings Sodra

76%

Draw or Jonkopings Sodra

50%

Winning margin

Halmstad wins by 2+

27%

Jonkopings Sodra wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Halmstad 1+ goals

81%

Halmstad 2+ goals

50%

Halmstad 3+ goals

24%

Jonkopings Sodra 1+ goals

68%

Jonkopings Sodra 2+ goals

31%

Jonkopings Sodra 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Halmstad (draw refunded)

66%

Jonkopings Sodra (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Halmstad at home — creates 1.79, concedes 0.95 · 61 matches

Jonkopings Sodra away — creates 1.30, concedes 1.56 · 90 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Halmstad attack 1.79 + Jonkopings Sodra defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.68

Jonkopings Sodra attack 1.30 + Halmstad defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Halmstad scores more

50%

level

24%

Jonkopings Sodra scores more

26%

Halmstad at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Halmstad will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

4'

J. BaffoePenalty

37'

J. Allansson

61'

A. Edqvist← M. Fazal

72'

E. Hamidović← R. Book

72'

E. Nordström← A. Al Hamlawi

75'

T. Parallangaj← J. Baffoe

75'

Alexander Johansson← M. Boman

80'

Adam Ben Lamin

89'

Junes Barny

90+1'

A. Eriksson← A. Lamin

90+1'

M. Nikolić← J. Barny

90+6'

Alexander Johansson

Shots

Statistics

HalmstadJonkopings

Overview

13Total Shots2

6Corners2

15Fouls16

Shots

13Total Shots2

4On Target1

9Off Target1

Goalkeeping

1Saves1

Discipline

15Fouls16

0Yellow Cards2

0Red Cards0